The worries about the monsoon should be over now. It has begun reviving in the southern peninsula and has even advanced on Thursday into the Northeast, covering Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and parts of Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) predicts progressive increase in rainfall over the Northeast two-three days, leading to the monsoon's further advance to more areas in this region.
In the south, where the monsoon has been stuck at Goa since June 10, it is likely to start advancing by tomorrow, reaching Mumbai in three days (around June 19).
This should facilitate the beginning of kharif sowing operations even in areas where it has been delayed by a few days because of the slow progress of the monsoon so far. Recharging of reservoirs is also likely to begin in the areas which have received monsoon or pre-monsoon showers.
Farm experts say not much harm has yet been done by the break in the monsoon in the south and about 15 days delay in its onset elsewhere. Farmers can go ahead with planting of normal crops and varieties. Since the "boro" rice and other "zaid" (pre-kharif season) crops have been harvested, the fields are free for seeding the main kharif crops.
According to NCMRWF director Akhilesh Gupta, atmospheric conditions are turning favourable for the strengthening of the monsoon and the situation is expected to improve fast. The atmospheric humidity level is increasing, which will pave the way for drawing more moisture from the sea, causing to strengthening of the monsoon flow.
Though, at the moment, the conditions are not too favoura-ble for the monsoon's progress towards north, but the situation can improve thanks to the picking-up of the overall flow of the monsoon. But the severe heat wave over large tracts of eastern and central part of the country are expected to abate in the next two days.
The total water storage in the country's major 76 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission was estimated at 15.75 billion cubic metres (BCM) on June 10. This level is higher than last year's position by 1.48 BCM, or 10 per cent, though lower than the past 10 years' average by some 2.22 BCM, or 12 per cent.
But 12 reservoirs have reported zero storage and nine others negative storage. Only three dams have storage of between 50 and 80 per cent of the designed capacity and six others between 30 and 50 per cent. As many as 67 dams are less than one-thirds filled.
Reports indicate that paddy sowing has begun in some northern (Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir) and north-eastern states (West Bengal and Orissa). In Tamil Nadu, too, some area has been covered by rice.
The agriculture ministry estimates the area covered under paddy so far to be around 6.72 lakh hectares, only marginally lower than the corresponding last year's position of 6.94 lakh hectares.
The delay in the progress of the monsoon has actually adversely hit the sowing of coarse cereals which depends almost wholly on the rains. Only about 5.7 lakh hectares have been planted with crops like jowar, bajra, maize, ragi and other coarse cereals, against the last year's corresponding coverage of 1.22 million hectares.
Among the commercial crops, cotton sowing has begun in the irrigated areas of north, especially Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
The total area coverage so far is estimated at 1.47 hectares, against 1.36 hectares planted last year till this times.
The area under sugarcane is also reckoned to have increased to 3.54 million hectares, against last year's corresponding position of 3.34 million hectares. But this is just the beginning of the sowing season.
