Some officials of the commission feel that it is too early to come out with any concrete growth rate for the 11th Plan.
"The work has begun (on the 11th Plan) but it is too early to predict a growth rate for the Plan period. We still have one year to go and we are not sure how the economy grows during the year," an official source told PTI.
Another view within the commission is that the growth rate may not be higher than the Tenth Plan target of 8 per cent. This because the actual growth rate for the Tenth Plan period (2002-07) is unlikely to cross seven per cent mark.
A major determinant of the growth rate would be farm sector growth during this and the next fiscal.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram had recently said, "Assuming high growth in industry and services, if agriculture does not grow by near 4 per cent, GDP will continue to grow by about 7 per cent," he said.
According to CSO estimates, GDP grew by 6.9 per cent last fiscal compared to 8.5 per cent in 2003-04. Though industry and manufacturing witnessed over 8 per cent growth, a deficit monsoon restricted farm sector growth to a meagre 1.1 per cent and pulled down overall GDP growth.
In 2003-04, GDP grew by a robust 8.5 per cent riding on a whopping 9.6 per cent higher farm output. Observing this trend, Chidambaram said "unless agriculture grows by 3-4 per cent, there is no way Indian economy can grow by 8 per cent."
