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Typhoon trouble from the West Pacific may spoil India's hopes of getting some early monsoon showers.
According to various meteorological reports from different countries, a raging typhoon in the West Pacific has would retain high intensity for at least two days. It may weaken from Monday.
This development may delay the arrival of monsoon at the Kerala coast, feel experts. Farmers in India have been hoping apportioned a part of the southwesterly flow to itself, denying the Arabian Sea required moisture to flag off the monsoon in Kerala.
London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group said that Typhoon Yutu is expected to become category-2 storm soon, and for early monsoon showers to boost their crops. In Kerala's Idukki district, lack of rains had hit almost all cardamom plantations.
Typhoon Yutu is projected as taking a detour from its west-northwesterly track to re-curve into the open waters of the West Pacific and head north-northeast. The typhoon would have been of some benefit to India had it struck to the original north-northwesterly track.
Following the new turn of events, the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has toned down its projections for a major storm building in the Arabian Sea. However, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been consistent in its outlook for a low-intensity system developing in the Arabian Sea to coincide with the onset of monsoon.
But the outlook for monsoon continues to be positive. Heavy spells of rain are expected to swamp the southwest coast during the initial phase of the monsoon.
Occasional thundershowers are already being reported from the Konkan coast, and going further south to Kerala.