India's oil import bill likely to dip 35% in FY'16

An $1 per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore.

India's crude oil import bill is likely to dip by 35 per cent to $73 billion this fiscal as global energy prices slumped on weak demand.

India had imported 189.43 million tons of crude oil in 2014-15 for $1,12,744 billion or Rs 6.87 lakh crore. This fiscal the imports are projected at 188.23 million tons, almost the same level as last year.

According to data available from Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, the country imported 114.9 million tons of crude during April- October for $43.6 billion.

Going by the trend, PPAC projected an import of 188.23 million tons for $73.28 billion or Rs 4.73 lakh crore.

Officials said while the April-October 2015 imports are based on actuals and for November 2015 to March 2016, the imports are estimated at $55 per barrel of oil and an exchange rate of Rs 65 to a US dollar.

An $1 per barrel change in crude price impacts the net import bill by Rs 3,513 crore (Rs 35.13 billion) or $0.54 billion. Similarly, Re 1 variation in exchange rate impacts the import bill by Rs 2,972 crores ($0.46 billion).

The basket of crude oil that India buys averaged $55.79 per barrel during the first half of current fiscal as against $84.16 a barrel average in full 2014-15 fiscal. The Indian basket had averaged $105.52 per barrel in 2013-14.

Besides crude oil, India also imported 16.5 million tons of petroleum products for $6.5 billion in April-October, according to the PPAC data. This compared to 12 million tons of import for $8 billion in the same period last fiscal.

Petroleum product exports too declined to 33.6 million tons in April-October from 37.1 million tons a year ago. India earned $17.3 billion this fiscal from exports as compared to $32.2 billion last year.

The growth in consumption was led by 7 per cent to 42.6 million tons. LPG demand rose to 10.9 million tons from 10 million tons in 2014 while petrol demand was up 14.5 per cent to 12.6 million tons.

Fuel consumption registered a robust growth of 17.5 per cent in October to 15.2 million tons. Except for kerosene, all other products recorded a positive growth.