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Rediff.com  » Business » India at high risk from European economic crisis: Maplecroft

India at high risk from European economic crisis: Maplecroft

July 25, 2012 12:44 IST

India and other key emerging markets have been categorised as having high exposure to Europe's economic woes by a risk analysis firm, Maplecroft.

Of the 169 countries outside of the euro zone, India has been ranked as the 85th most exposed to the European crisis. Among other emerging markets, South Africa was ranked at the 49th position, Russia (50), Brazil (62) and India (85) -- all classified as 'high risk' countries in the index.

China, ranked 112th, was rated as 'medium risk'. "These economies are not fully insulated from the slowdown themselves due to trade and investment relations with Europe and an escalating Eurozone crisis could further exacerbate current domestic slowdown in growth forecasts across the BRICS," Maplecroft said.

According to a new global index by Maplecroft, the UK tops the list of countries which are at 'extreme risk', followed by Poland and Hungary at the second and third position respectively.

With around 50 per cent of its trade coming from the euro-zone, the UK is the most exposed country to the debt crisis in the area and ranks 1st in the index.

The Czech Republic was ranked in the fourth position, followed by Mauritania (5), Mozambique (6), Mauritius (7), Sweden (8), Iceland (9) and Cape Verde at the 10th position.

Maplecroft Analyst Daniel Anavitarte said, "Trade and investment flows may be disrupted from and to emerging economies while large developed nations could see their growth forecast offset due to their large exposure to euro area banks."

The index includes 169 countries outside of the euro zone and measures trade and foreign direct investment with the euro area; bank claims of euro-zone countries; and domestic economic indicators such as fiscal balance, public debt, inflation and foreign reserves.

Maplecroft concludes that the economic difficulties in the euro zone have highlighted the disadvantages of high levels of integration for member countries, and also for those economies that are integrated with one or more members, which are facing a wider exposure risk.

"Investors should follow closely the developments in the Eurozone as the implications will continue to influence global economic behaviour," Anavitarte said.

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