"The economy has already done 8 per cent in the first 6 months. There is a fear for slowdown of the momentum but I think we will close 2005-06 with 7.5 per cent growth. An 8 per cent growth in the last year of the 10th Plan will take us much closer to 8 per cent or higher than that growth in the 11th Plan," Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman, Planning Commission said.
"Let's first get to a steady 8 per cent growth and then we can think of doing better and in the 11th Plan we will look at getting more than 8 per cent," he added.
He said possibility of reaching such high growth would particularly depend on the growth in manufacturing and services sectors and the levels of private investment besides growth in agriculture sector and infrastructure development.
"Acceleration to (a growth rate of) 8 per cent and beyond won't be possible if rapid growth is not recorded in the manufacturing and services sectors," he said.
Referring to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's idea of 12-14 per cent growth in the manufacturing sector, Ahluwalia said, "Double digit growth has always been the target but we will need to do much more... We will look at the policy initiatives needed for this".
Ahluwalia said agriculture growth in the last 7-8 years has decelerated and hovered around 2 per cent only.
"A turnaround in agriculture performance is necessary and the Commission feels 4 per cent growth is feasible. We at the Commission are working at what all are required to achieve this," he asserted.
Mentioning the National Development Council sub-committee set up for the sector, he said it would come out with the suggestions soon and these would be incorporated in the 11th Plan.
On the issue of infrastructure development, Ahluwalia said the volumes of investment has to increase manifold.
"We often compare India with China. The levels of investment that China has done is much higher than what we have done. The volume of investment in India is not consistent to the kind of infrastructure we need," Ahluwalia pointed out.
In 1996 investment in infrastructure sector was 6 per cent of GDP which went down to 3.6 per cent of GDP in 2002-03 according to latest official estimates, he said, adding that the levels should shoot to 7-8 per cent of GDP in the next seven years.
As this is a huge amount, private sector participation was imperative as the public sector alone could not take the entire financial burden.
"Lot of public sector resources would go for the projects under the Bharat Nirman programme (for roads, power, drinking water, telephony, and irrigation in rural areas), so funds for other infrastructure sector would be restricted," he said, adding that the fiscal strength of the Centre and the states have to be improved and priority has to be given to infrastructure.
