As the southwest monsoon maintains its record-breaking performance over most parts of India, agriculture economists and policy makers hope overall agriculture growth would top five per cent in 2013-14, on the back of bumper harvests.
This, if realised, would come as a relief to the beleaguered economy, as the farm sector’s multiplier growth is much more than its direct impact on gross domestic product, despite its shrinking share in the Indian economy.
“Not only in kharif; a big boom is also expected in the rabi sowing season, as reservoirs are filled to the brim, which could be the big turnaround the economy is desperately looking for,” Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices, told Business Standard.
He said considering that agriculture growth in 2012-13 was around 1.8 per cent, there would be natural bounce of a similar amount and if we add the 11th Five-Year Plan average annual agriculture gross domestic product growth of 3.6 per cent to this, the total comes to over five per cent.
This is easily achievable as weather Gods have been super-normal, he said.
“I won’t be surprised if overall agriculture growth in 2013-14 touches even seven per cent, as not only the area under kharif crops is more than last year but the uniform distribution of rainfall will also push up per-hectare yields,”