Ramsh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. My sense is that the book build price will be north of Rs 900. It will be decided by book build.
yahoo : will tcs list above 1200 ?
Ramsh S Damani : I doubt it.
pawandelhi : good evening sir ! sir today godrej soaps was down 9.57 % trading st 44.90 ( Time 14:47:25). is is the right time to enter for this stock ? sir how long should i hold it ? any price target sir
Ramsh S Damani : The company declared a loss in Q1 due to mainenance and forex loss. Next three quarters should be better. In low 40's I would buy.
pawandelhi : sir what is your opinion on SBI & TISCO ? will they break their previous high i.e. 675 & 450 ? when ?
Ramsh S Damani : Tisco could do it. SBI looks like it is forming a base.
billmiller : ramesh, recently arvind mills posed a 4th consecutive quater of declines in net profits,owing to high input cost namely cotton,fuel and power.in general, indian textile is higly susceptible to cotton prices...85% of indian textile export r cotton stuff while as globally synthetic fibre accounts for nearly 60% of the global trade.i donot see how post-MFA global textiles trade will benefit indian industry? in fact it will throw them to more competetion. man made fibre,which was heavy levied in this budget and reduced fabric and blended yarn manfacturing capity mak thing worse????/ramesh, i just want ur views on same???/thanks
Ramsh S Damani : US market can be exploited. I think in Aug 10 or so Crisil is releasing a textile vision statement, which will say that textiles could export over $60 billion. The industry is optimistic.
billmiller : ramesh, which book r u reading or have completed recently? some time back u mentioned CABLE COWBOYS and i like this book very much....some other book on same pattern which takes a look at any particular indistry as a whole?thanks
Ramsh S Damani : A piece of the action on the credit card industry.
chandani : it is always a case that before result price is high but inspite of great result the script tanks so now WHAT should be done with RELIANCE AND SBI PLEASE GUIDE US
Ramsh S Damani : It's the 'buy on rumour' and 'sell on news' act in the market.
vikas1 : Macmillan : Coming out with result tomorrow, whats your expectation. Is it last chance to accumulate at current price ?
Ramsh S Damani : Somwehow 30 per cent growth is all the company has delivered.
mansri : Sir, Godrej Ind. declared worst Q1 results - loss of Rs. 5.60 crores from Rs. 8.26 profit made in the corresponding Q1 of last year. Their sales have gone down by 10%, PBIDT down by 44%, Interest Exp. up by 363%. Why such wild swings in the performance on quarter on quarter basis? They did well last year especially in the last quarter of 2003-04. What is the fault with this co? There is selling on the counter today. Pl. advise to sell or hold.
Ramsh S Damani : Business does not work q-on-q, which the market demands. Balance sheet is in good shape and they are doing well.
sanujkadavi : SirMost of fmcg players are trading a P/E of over 12 otherthan godrej ind. But we canot call godrej a pure fmcg. But its group compamy GCPL paying interim of RS2 on a e.p.s of 3. it has mkt cap of 1100cr and a p/e of 15. Looking at the godrej ind B/L it has investment of 260cr and e.p.s of 13.5rs. it trading a p/e of 4 and a mktcap/sales of .4. Why the market is treating the stock with low p/e..Do you fearing that the company is coming out with a low rate buy back
Ramsh S Damani : No. Godrej Industry is not widely followed or understood. I told them to hold an analyst meet this year.
vikas1 : Zodiac came out with dissapointing result. whats your take on it with long term view. Would u buy if it falls to 230-240 level
Ramsh S Damani : I have not seen them yet.
parishilton : how do yu see the results of tata infotech,how is their systems integration division doing do yu major profits coming from this area and have been able to get a new bpo client remember they lost a client last year
Ramsh S Damani : Should be good. No news on BPO business.
sanujkadavi : SIRLast Friday mcdowell went up 10% with a volume of 8lakh. Is there any news coming on that counter ? the board is meeting on 28th july. I heard that herbertsons deal might happen this week. If it happen do you think the mcdowell rallies another 30-40% in short term..
Ramsh S Damani : A foreign fund has started buying according to rumours.
sanujkadavi : Sir How would you comment to the following statement by cnbc analyst sandeep shenoy Godrej Industries seems to be on the path of de-listing and I'll advise investors to exit from the stock at current levels, says market analyst Sandeep Shenoy. Shenoy told CNBC-TV18, "It seems that Godrej Industries is on the path of de-listing. Its buyback programmes since the last one year are pointing towards that direction. So, I'll advise investors to exit from it at current levels."He also said that long-term investors should not enter the counter now.
Ramsh S Damani : They could buy back if SEBI asks them but Godrej has been fair and I am sure they will not cheat shareholders. The last buyback failed.
sanujkadavi : SirTvs eletr posted good results on yoy basis . but e.p.s is still low. Still they are not able to get better margin BPO business. Would you buy tvs after the results.. they have the potential to become a good player in BPO business . are you betting on TVS as a longterm IT/ITES play..
Ramsh S Damani : They have not been able to scale up or increase margin. Stock is good on a market cap basis but still resulswill be a sruggle.
vikas1 : Padmalya Tele : After last chat it has gone to 65 from 55 , today it is 60 . did u look at it. They are also doing animation and is better and strong management and balance sheet than crest . will u not consider it
Ramsh S Damani : Not at the current time, I have notlooked at it.
aman : what is your expectetion about TCS on listing? Do you see it giving 30% return( around 24-25 p/e, round 1100 prise)
Ramsh S Damani : My sense is the company will do well on listing.
parishilton : would yu buy or sell colgate at 145 is monsoon failure such a big worry for this co
Ramsh S Damani : Hold on at this price.
Alok : Damaniji, is it advisable to enter Elxsi at this rate
Ramsh S Damani : Wait till results come out on June 30.
sanujkadavi : SirAccording to marc faber:.Whereas my major thing is that basically in the last 30 years, with very few investments decisions, you could have done very well. You could have bought gold at $34 an ounce in 1970 and at the same time, oil for $1.30 per barrel. You could have gone on a holiday and sold it in 1980, gold at $850, and oil at close to $50.00 a barrel. You could have worked for one week and figured out investing in Japan as the best alternative. Then you could have bought Japanese stocks and sold them in 1990, ten years later with a seven-fold gain. Then, you could have worked another week and decided that everyone was optimistic in Asia, but decided there was an under-valuation in US equities. And then you could have bought the S&P 500 or ideally the NASDAQ and sold it again ten years later in March 2000, with a gain of 10-15 fold. WHAT WILL BE YOUR INVESTMENT DECISION IN NEXT 10 YEARS
Ramsh S Damani : That would be great would it not? Jim Rogers and Marc Faber say China will give that kind of return. Biotech companies could. Let's see.
vivekjagrawal : WHICH OF THESE LIQOUR STOCKS IS UR CORE HOLDING.... THERE R 2 WITH SAME NAME -- UB (UNITED BREWERIES AND UB HOLDINGS)....THE CURRENT PRICE OF UB HOLDINGS IS ARD Rs34 AND OF UNITED BREWERIES Rs89.
Ramsh S Damani : UB breweries own the beer assets. UB holding is a holding company for McDowell, Aventis etc
vivekjagrawal : ANOTHER QUESTION INVOLVING SIMILAR NAMES - WHICH ONE AMONG THESE GODREJ STOCKS DO U RECOMEND -- GODREJ INDUSTRIES(CURRENT PRICE ARD RS 48 )AND GODREJ CONSUMERS (CURRENT PRICE ARD 199)?I
WENT THRO' UR CHAT TRANSCRIPTS BUT WASN'T SURE.
Ramsh S Damani : I own both. Godrej Industries is a good bet.
vikas1 : Crest Comm: are u booking profit or wait for 30th result and keep it as long term play
Ramsh S Damani : It is a trading bet at this time.
AvinashiRamesh : Sir, Latest I understand from my friend that Sundaram Finance will be announcing Public/Right issue shortly .. is it?
Ramsh S Damani : I have not heard of the same. I doubt it thoough.
Pato : Is TATA Honeywell worth buying considering the fact that the TATAs have sold for 350 rupees per share ? Will retail investors get a better price if Honeywell opts for a buyback ?
Ramsh S Damani : Maybe through a reverse book build.
ssunil : sir,you had correctly said earlier that their is resistance around 5150 what is your view now will market test 4800-4900 also mcap have started correcting how far they canc correct from here
Ramsh S Damani : No clear answer. Global news is pretty bad.
suresh-kumar : Dear sir, kale consultants P/E ratio is very high is worth investing at this price
Ramsh S Damani : Look at market cap of Kale.
vikas1 : Tata Elxsi : what exactlu u want to confirm in Q1 result as last time u said it could be core holding with lot of potential which we determine after Q1 result
Ramsh S Damani : Stocks are volatile before results. I like to add only after the results are out. Take a fresh view.
vikas1 : We agree godrej / goldiam / opto are good value picks but they dont move much. Do u have any othher mid caps which excites you.like Ind Swift lab / samtel color / zicom
Ramsh S Damani : Sail, IDBI for movement. They are trading good volumes.
suresh-kumar : Nasdaq is going down, dow jones is gone below 10000 mark and all other markets are going down, but only indian market is going up is there any reason or someone is traping the investers
Ramsh S Damani : Maybe due to the new tax policy.
sanujkadavi : SirBoth ub holdings and united beer board meeting today. Do you expecting anything hot from the meeting
Ramsh S Damani : No.
Alok : Damaniji, when is the Dividend record date for Tata Elxsi
Ramsh S Damani : It is x-div in the market.
sanujkadavi : sirare you looking any biotech companies otherthan biocon. i think krebs bio doing well..is there any biotech companies in india with business model like biocon
Ramsh S Damani : Not really, no pure biotech plays.
AvinashiRamesh : Sir You are not answering on my question about Publi/Right issue of Sundaram Finance. Please give me your reply.
Ramsh S Damani : I have not heard about it.
aman : Mr. Damani with Income funds out of favour and with equity investment with current tax rate has become the only option for savvy HNI's who has already started putting money in long term investible scripts. Can you recoomend once again the ones you like the most in current situations
Ramsh S Damani : I keep doing so, nothing new that i have bought.
sanujkadavi : SirSouth India bank post bad results in the Q1. stock dow 10%. Rights issue coming on two weeks time. If the stock go below 43 rs. Investors can buy from market rather than rights issue. Are you still bullish on SIB as a value pick rather than a growth story.
Ramsh S Damani : Yes
akss : sir how to judge a stock from Mcap vs low p/e
Ramsh S Damani : If mcap is low I ignore PE.
ssunil : sir,if you are positive on biotech than why are you keeping biocon out of your radar
Ramsh S Damani : It is not exatly a biotech company.
vikas1 : Logix and Nelco : Any idea when are they coming out with result. Do u hold same good views about Nelco
Ramsh S Damani : No date but should be soon. I have bought them as a basket.
bearlover : what should be e-serve offer price ?
Ramsh S Damani : Likely to get around 950.
sanujkadavi : sirub air is buying 12aircraft worth of 220$million for proposed ub air. and he says money would be raised internally.. but how can he raise these much money . both mcdowell, ub holding already have debt of 600crores..how will the air business impact group companies B/L
Ramsh S Damani : Beats me.
ssunil : sir,it seems you have changed your views on IDBI /Look at Track record of Mr. Damodaran He has potential to deliver
Ramsh S Damani : You may be right. I have taken a small trading bet.
AnandB : Hello Sir,Honeywell anounced a few weeks ago that they wanted to buy the 40% TAta stake in Tata Honeywell at 350 subject to regulator approva.What does it mean for us.Is the upside capped?Will it be like Eserve eventually.Your advise please..........
Ramsh S Damani : Honeywell may try to delist in which case they will have to do a reverse book build. Astra Zeneca's failed. The company is doing well so let's wait.
AvinashiRamesh : Regarding Sundaram Finance Public/ Right issue, after your message, I just spoke to my friend that it is in the Company Research News that AGM is on 11 and book closures is on 03 August to 12 August 2004. It shall be announced in the AGM?
Ramsh S Damani : Maybe, but they dont need the cash.
Sharad : Sir, During last 6 months I have repeatedly sought your views on MRPL..Kindly through some light on it today
Ramsh S Damani : Sorry, I don't follow it.
sanujkadavi : sirplease elabrate it( BEATS ME)sanujkadavi asked, sirub air is buying 12aircraft worth of 220$million for proposed ub air. and he says money would be raised internally.. but how can he raise these much money . both mcdowell, ub holding already have debt of 600crores..how will the air business impact group companies B/LRamsh S Damani answers, beats me
Ramsh S Damani : I don't know from where and who is going to give them the money. They may lease rather than buy. Seems another ego decision rather than strategic.
bearlover : Sir how to co-relate market cap to stock price ?
Ramsh S Damani : It is an art. Comes with experience.
sd : Mr.Damani if we have to invest in stock market today, which sector u will advice to put money into
Ramsh S Damani : Little bit in tech.
AnandB : Thanks a lot Sir.Whats your acc on the market.Budget,turnover tax is behind us.A not so good monsoon is probably discounted.Where do you see it heading in the coming month or two?
Ramsh S Damani : Global factors are worrying us still (oil, nasdaq) however domestic factors are looking good.
bearlover : Sir still please give me how to hint market cap with stock price ?
Ramsh S Damani : That would take a seperate class. Cannot be done on a chat show.
AvinashiRamesh : Sir, Is it worth buying TCS at Rs. 900. My wife keep insisting for investment into TCS. Should I?
Ramsh S Damani : I am planning to buy. Not sure on IPO or listing.
suresh-kumar : dear sir, donot u think that INFOSYS and all large IT companys are trading almost Higher P/E ratios and there is little room for further appreciation at present .
Ramsh S Damani : Growth will be srong it seems.
sd : Mr.DAMANAI ..PLEASE GIVE YOUR VIEW ON STEEL, SHIPPING WHICH STARTED REVIVING FROM CHINA SLOW DOWN SHOCK AND DEMAND AND PRICES ARE FIRMED UP HANDSOMELY IN JULY 04
Ramsh S Damani : Difficult to say. They are on a good wicket, but at these market caps I would be careful. tisco will probably be the best bet in steel. Thanks all for joining see you next week.