'The market is in a trading zone, perhaps till the budget. However, long-term investors should be buying,' says Ramesh S Damani.
chandani : hello sir, so now we are in trading zone?? is it safe to short when market has risen more and buy when fallen considerably?
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Lets start. market is in a trading zone, perhaps till the budget. However, long-term investors should be buying.
Kans : What is Technical analisys and Charts etc. relates to stock market. In my view they are nothing but generalising investor behaviour based on some past history rather than looking into the fundamentals of a stock / index? What is your view on this?
Ramesh S Damani : yes, but history may not repeat itself, though it does rhyme. Technicals allow you to size up the market. It is a helpful tool.
Kans : Will the downward revision of Rupee Vis-a-vis USD make tech firms more profitable?
Ramesh S Damani : it should, but many companies are hedged already, so no immediate impact.
a shah : Mr. Damani as market is keeping below 5000 level now and almost all brokers are advising to trim the exposures on every rise do you see entering into bear phase is becoming more and more real...or you still prefer to wait before confirming it
Ramesh S Damani : by strict technical indicators a bear market has started. However, my instinct tells me we need to give some latitude in emerging markets.
ajaymatt : thanks ramesh for suggesting Joe Granville. This guy is awesome regarding predicting top and bottom of bull cycles?thanks a ton
Ramesh S Damani : sure, enjoy his books a lot.
a shah : Mr. Damani, though we might be entering in to dull phase a good monsoon can do a lot of good to our economy. If one takes a call considering monsoon is good and I won't to buy some great value buys for a year horizon which ones you recommend strongly to buy at each instance of market plunge in next one - two month.
Ramesh S Damani : With profits growing, GDP will also grow. I remain optimistic on the outlook for equities. Oil remains a worry.
shaista : sir , I have sold all my stocks and now i do not want to invest in stocks as i hate the stocks for that monday fall which shows how much safe is your money in the stock market. can you tell me some other avenue for investing for one year?
Ramesh S Damani : we don't have too many alternatives to stocks in India. May be starting your own business. . .
Sharad : Sir, I want to learn Technical Analysis methods, where can I join a course on Technicals (in Mumbai)?
Ramesh S Damani : Try bseindia or deepak mohini, they hold courses on the same.
MALIK : sir the results of Kale Consultants are out. What is your view on the scrip. Whether it worth to buy at Rs 38 and hold? Are u bullish on the scrip?
Ramesh S Damani : yes, they should have a much better year this time around.
ahmedabadguys : Mr. Damani when is Mcdowell result? what kind of div. payout is likely?
Ramesh S Damani : generally Rs 2 , results have never been good, so don't hold your breath.
AnandBhatt : Hello Sir, do you think this budget will be a populist budget, leading to a fall in the markets post-budget. The Left has already started making noises about Airport privatization, etc. The only focus seems to be on agriculture.
Ramesh S Damani : Sure, so lets look at some agriculutural stock. we will have to wait for the budget to see the exact policy. If they raise taxes that would be a bad sign.
basantmaheshwari : Do you buy the argument that a bear market will substantially hit the viewership of TV-18. All major funds Reliance Templeton are very much invested in this. Would you take a look at this at about Rs 200 crore. Company is planning for a Hindi channel launch in Last quarter of this year and marketmen it appears would like to be sure about the profitability of the channel rather then see it go the Headlines today way. Please answer.
Ramesh S Damani : basant, i have answered this Q for you many times. Don't look at a quarter, look five years ahead, they have a good business franchiseless competition and ad spend is going to increase, Moneycontrol will be a huge asset. You must learn patience while investing. Great profits come from great conviction.
joael : mr.damani what other books other than granville, lynch are worth reading?
Ramesh S Damani : look up books on Warren Buffett.
AnandBhatt : Sir, can I get this Joe Granville book in Bombay at any bookstore?
Ramesh S Damani : no, it is not in print. You may find it with someone or at a library.
ahmedabadguys : Mr. Damani one of the prime reasons for the recent fall is due to FII pullout. Do you smell another few months of FII pull out or you see India escaping fii pull back?
Ramesh S Damani : they have sold only small amounts. They are not the cause for the fall.
AnandBhatt : Sir, I heard many agriculture stocks are unlisted. We have Jain Irrigation, but the management is a big question mark as of what I have heard.
Ramesh S Damani : here is a sampling of stocks i am looking at. KSB Pumps (water pumps); Sygenta (seeds), Swaraj Engines (tractors), VST Tiller (in AP). All are decent companies with good yields and should do well provided monsoon is good.
baracuda : vijay kelkar is going to play a major role in this years budjet is game plan of reducing the revenue defecit and thus controlling fiscal defecit seems very practicalincrease tax gdp ratio by1% broaden the service tax and excise collections will add another 2% reduce central govt int burden by 1111111% will add 1% and implement vat will add 1% i think the fm may just about make it and that should make investors a liitle happy
Ramesh S Damani : kelkar is wise man and if PC listens to him i would be happy.
HiDamani : what is happening to ur favourite stock - SBI sir? I have recently added more, have i taken right decision?
Ramesh S Damani : it has fallen with the rest of the banking stock. results are still in line.
sureshmakhija : In security analysis benjamin told that company's intrinsic value could be found by estimating the earnings of a company and multiplying those by an appropriate capitalization factor. Sir, what he mean by capitalization factor can u explain sir plz?
Ramesh S Damani : the p in p/e, i think. PE is the multiple which the market gives to a stock.
anilgupta : do you think that in coming budget exemption on capital gain tax will be removed as looks by the policy of new govt
Ramesh S Damani : it could, but the market could handle that at 10%, putting tax on dividend would be far worse.
Kiran : Hello Ramesh, I have been reading your scripts more than a year. So far I have never seen any of your recommendations (Mcdowel, Macmilan, Balaji telefilms, Godrej, Goldium, Logix, ShreeRaj syntax and many more) give good returns. I am wondering how you got such a good following even though your recommendations are not successful. I agree that no one can predict the market, but still most of your recommendations are total flop. Do you think that you need to look into it?
Ramesh S Damani : sometimes you need to look at markets in perspective. I have recommended PSU stocks which did well, and tech before that. It is hard to say when a sector or stock catches fire, you need to buy good companies and hold them as long as they are performing, trying to chase the market favourites in my opinion foolhardy. The logic is important, not what the market decides in a few trading days.
vikas6 : Man Ind : Don't you think its great stock . It touched 160 and now 70. It has 1000 cr. turnover expected in 05 from 500 this year. profits a re also very good
Ramesh S Damani : they have some capex so results will be flat for one year.
nitulb : Ramesh Bhai, what's your opinion on Tata Chemicals & Tata Investment Corp as long-term investments, considering the expected TCS IPO being positive in the short term.
Ramesh S Damani : it would help them. No question.
anilgupta : for the current govt the only option is to raise the fund for their populist measure is to raise the tax, so they will increase the tax
Ramesh S Damani : that would be bad news.
vvinay : sir, I was going through past transcript you had once mentioned KRBL as a buy now with focus on agriculture sector can one get in it at current level
Ramesh S Damani : i dont believe, i have recommended KRBL.
sanujkadavil : sir what about UB Holdings. last date delivery of 100%. do you think Winstar is accumulating Ub Holding. stock not loose ground in the meltdown
Ramesh S Damani : not heard from Marc Faber yet.
AnandBhatt : Sir, what do you feel about Tech? People are calling it a defensive play. It's strange what is being called defensive was once called a growth sector. I bought some Tata Elxsi at 100.
Ramesh S Damani : it is ironical. i am comfortable with tech at this time.
narayan : sundaram fin net up 22% its also thinking to be a bank already paid 70% div. r u satisfied with the result can one add at current level
Ramesh S Damani : yes and the subsidiary is starting to make money look at the consoldiated results. it is a slow but steady compounder.
MALIK : Sir, Till
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