| Rediff India Abroad Home | All the sections | |
If the govt wins, will reforms get a boost? July 19, 2008 The hope is also expressed that Manmohan Singh and team will address more effectively than hitherto the issues thrown up by the double whammy of rising inflation and falling growth. These involve two different sets of issues, of course. The first is fundamentally long-term in orientation (like pension reform, and raising the foreign investment limit for sectors like insurance). This is important in its own right but unlikely to make a difference to the economy or to the voter before the elections come round. If the government addresses them nevertheless, it will be in response to the charge that it has done little of note in the last four years. But irrespective of how much the government does from now on, the opportunity lost in areas like power investment, increasing and improving the education throughput, and lowering the cost of doing business (eg. through urban land reform to make office space and housing affordable) have been lost for good. The second set of issues has to do with short-term macro-economic management - and here, even if the government wants to do something, it has few satisfactory options in a pre-election year. If the fiscal deficit (correctly calculated) is going to climb to 8 per cent of GDP, and if the current account (on trade) is going to be a record 4 per cent of GDP, then the macro-economic situation is clearly unsustainable. By allowing fertiliser and oil subsidies to mount, the government is destroying both the fertiliser and oil marketing companies. Caught between a rock and a hard place, the government watches with apparent helplessness as the country's credit rating is endangered, and as overseas investors pull their money out of the stock market. It might have been able to contain the problem if it had not announced the bank loan waiver, and if implementing the Pay Commission award could be deferred by a year. But both are now facts on the ground. In short, there is no joy when it comes to short-term economic management. What is likely therefore is that the Reserve Bank will continue to raise interest rates to slow down demand. For business, that is not a happy prospect. The bottom line is that companies will have to manage as best as they can in a situation of macro-economic uncertainty. Fortunately, companies have strong balance sheets, and the investment in power, the transport sector (railways, highways, ports and airports) and in basic industries like steel will keep the pot boiling. Powered by More Guest Columns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||