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Top 10 stocks you must consider
Salil Panchal & Hemen Kapadia/Morpheus Inc., in Mumbai | September 26, 2005
At a time when the stock markets are in a volatile phase, we recommend 10 investment decisions that investors could look for. This time we have included two stocks which could be sell-offs based on technical chart patterns, as locking-in gains (and / or preventing further losses) is a profitable investment decision in a choppy market.
We assess that volatility will continue for some time after the benchmark 30-share Sensex touched record highs recently. Buying opportunities will arise but will remain stock specific, with no clear trends appearing across sectors or indices immediately.
The longer-term picture for the markets, however, continues to be positive and stable, looking at the macro-economic picture.
Here are the top 10 investment decisions for you:
1. CONCOR (Container Corporation of India)
A public sector undertaking, which provides multi-modal logistics support for the country's exim and domestic trade and commerce, CONCOR is likely to have an advantage of limited competition due to several entry-barriers in the container freight segment. The state-owned company targets a 20 percent CAGR in volumes for the next two to three years.
CONCOR last week signed an agreement with Gateway Distriparks Ltd (GDL) to provide train services to transport exim container traffic from / to GDL. Concor plans to spend about Rs 2,500 crore (Rs 25 billion) as capital expenditure over a five-year period towards container acquisition and developing inland container depots.
2. Balmer Lawrie & Company
Balmer Lawrie a public sector undertaking with a 75-year history has a diverse business portfolio, which spans both manufacturing and service businesses. The company provides logistic services related to air-ocean freight, warehousing and cargo handling.
It also manufactures steel barrels, grease, lubricants, leather chemicals and packaged tea. Balmer Lawrie has gained in recent times due to robust growth in India's cross-border trades, which have resulted in an increased movement of cargoes in and outside India.
Balmer Lawrie has container freight stations (CFS) at three of the busiest ports of India - Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai.
3. Nestlé India
Nestlé India is a subsidiary of Nestlé SA of Switzerland. We expect rural consumer demand to pick-up steadily in coming quarters. With six factories, Nestle is planning to set up a new manufacturing facility in Uttaranchal at an investment of Rs 100 crore (Rs 1 billion) over the next two to three years.
The new facility will manufacture culinary products and is set for commercial production in the first half of 2006. The company's net sales were up by 9.36 percent from Rs 541.5 crore (Rs 5,415 million) in the current quarter compared to Rs 592.2 crore (Rs 5,922 million) in the corresponding quarter in the previous year. The net profit was up by 93 percent from Rs 42.78 crore (Rs 427.8) million to Rs 82.38 crore (Rs 823.8 million).
4. Garware Polyester
Garware Polyesters Limited is the largest and the first company to produce polyester film in India, for the last 20 years.
The scrip appears a good buy looking at technical charts, having posted a higher top, higher bottom formation on the weekly chart, the mechanical indicators have signalled a buy, it has overcome a supply line while a decisive weekly close above the Rs 68 level would trigger off the next round of a probably long-term uptrend.
5. Punjab Communications
Punjab Communications Limited is involved in manufacturing core telecom and IT equipment. It has steadily built its position in software solutions too. In the telecom line, its main clients include India's top telecom and infrastructure companies, besides the railways and airports.
On the technical charts, the scrip looks positive. It posted a higher top, higher bottom formation on the weekly chart, with a 76-week high, and gave an upward breakout from a consolidation pattern. With the mechanical indicators supporting the move, a further upside seems like a mere formality.
6. Shyam Telecom
Shyam Telecom Limited is a leading provider of telecom equipment in India. It has been a pioneer in this segment. The scrip appears to be positively placed on the technical charts.
Currently Shyam Telecom Limited has not only resumed its intermediate uptrend by closing above a supply line but has also given indication of commencing a long term uptrend and the mechanical indicators are supporting the move, hence a further upside seems like a strong possibility.
7. Warren Tea
Warren Tea is an Assam based tea Plantation Company managed by the Goenka group. The company has 13 tea plantations spread over the northeastern region. On the technical charts, the scrip showed sparks of life after a 33-week consolidation.
The weekly and monthly oscillators have signalled a buy while a weekly close above a supply line could not only mean the onset of an intermediate uptrend but also the resumption of its long-term uptrend.
8. Rayban Sun Optics India
A leading player in a niche segment across the west, Rayban took some time to establish itself in the country. Competition in earlier years came from the unorganised sector through cheap imitations.
The company's sales have improved in recent quarters with a net profit of Rs 32 million in June-end financial earnings against Rs 19.9 million the previous quarter. On the technical charts, the scrip appears strong and is on the verge of giving an upward breakout on the weekly charts.
The mechanical indicators support the move, while a weekly close above a supply line would mean the onset of an intermediate uptrend from these levels.
9. Assam Company*
Assam Company had posted handsome gains in earlier months on the technical charts, with an explosive rise to peak at an intra-week high of Rs. 333 during the week ending July 1, 2005. Since then our analysis suggests it has entered a corrective phase, which took the form of a triangle-type formation.
Currently Assam Company Limited seems to be on the verge of giving a downward breakout from this formation by closing below a demand line and with the mechanical indicators signalling a sell, a further downside seems like a distinct possibility.
10. Mukand Engineers*
Mukand Engineers Ltd. has expertise in all areas of engineering construction including feasibility studies, planning and construction of projects. This stock appears to be on a corrective phase on the technical charts.
Currently the scrip is on the verge of giving a downward bar reversal on the weekly chart, from a symmetrical triangle formation on the weekly chart and with the mechanical indicators reflecting weakness, a further decline from these levels seems like a mere formality.
* Stocks that have been recommended as sell-offs.
Morpheus Incorporated is an independent investment intelligence services firm based in Mumbai. It provides investment advisory services and specialises in technical analysis products, stock markets training modules, derivatives trading strategies and financial news analysis and commentary.
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Sebi Disclosure: The authors are active market participants and could be having positions in the stocks mentioned above.