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'I like the logistics business'

January 18, 2005

jk : sir, any picks in the print industry? what are ur views about navneet publication? Also, in the auto ancillary sector, what are ur views on Amtek auto [Get Quote]? Will you recommend a buy for these stocks at the present levels?
Ramesh S Damani : Hello everyone. Thanks for joining. Let's start. Mid-day and Sandesh are good bets. I own them. No new ideas in auto ancillary.


Yogesh : Sir, last week I sold NTPC and Tata tele with a profit of about 20%. Now I again want to buy these stocks. Do you think I should go for them again? Also, I'm holding SBI [Get Quote]. Any views on SBI?
Ramesh S Damani : I like SBI. I can't recommend trading strategies.


hydinvestor : Hi Ramesh, Good eveningI have Mount Shivalik, Champagne Indage [Get Quote], Tilak Nagar. With takeover attempts by big boys, and mergers etc, what would be the fate of small breweries and wine companies? Will they be able to survive with their own identity along with the aggressive biggies?
Ramesh S Damani : They will get re-rated and buyers will emerge.


JesseLivermore : Sir, ABN Amro's quoted as bearish on World economy. Expects a global slowdown vis-a-vis last year's phenomenal rebound (biggest of the last two decades).Their contention is that all indicators are going down. Whats your opinion?
Ramesh S Damani : Have not seen the forecast.


nanpal : Damani Sir, Give some goot short term scrips for 2-3 months hold. Most of your scrips are of 1 year or more period. Thanks
Ramesh S Damani : Forecasting short term movements is not my srength.


ckr : Sir, The cement sector is supposed to do well in coming days. Do you think gaints like ACC and GujAmbuja has still something left to buy at the current levels? What about buying cement stocks like Mysore Cements [Get Quote],India Cements [Get Quote] etc?
Ramesh S Damani : They will be doing well from this quarter.


baracuda : have yu read the interim report on the govt of indias gas pricing policy where they intend to reduce the gas transmission cost by almost 50% on the gails HBJ piplne if this is put to practise gails bottomline will take a 500crs hit inwhich case will yu change your opinion on GAIL
Ramesh S Damani : I did. It is as you said an interim report. That is a risk with PSU.


pawanddrpk : Sir I read a book in which the author was a leading well known fund manager of U.S based company. One day while polishing his shoes , cobbler asked him for a share script. On that very day he sold all his holdings (nearly 1500 companies stocks) & markets went down 35 % from there within a week. Is this the scenario which is going to take place in Indian market. Please reply sir. Is Indian market are over bought now !
Ramesh S Damani : That was Joe Kennedy in 1929. The saying goes, when the public gets wise, the wise gets out.


JOEGRANVILLE : ramesh,i think there is a lack of indepedent reseach houses in india, some like dow jones news leter does not exist here..most of research is done by brokerage houses???do u know any independent research house in india???thanks
Ramesh S Damani : Yes there are some like Value Notes, myIris etc.


JOEGRANVILLE : ramesh, what have u been reading lately??i suggest u to read a book named BIOLOGY OF BUSINESS BY John Henry Clippinger ????
Ramesh S Damani : No, will take a look at it.


vikrant : hi mr damani .. i would like to to ask " SO CALLED WIZARDS " .. that do they go short in a bear market and also about their educatioin and early days
Ramesh S Damani : Some of them do.


sanujkadavil : SirWhat side of business you likes in AEGIS , their annual report says logistics and terminal division's 50-60% capacity already entered for longterm contracts. Also entering to retailting of auto LPG...
Ramesh S Damani : I like the logistics business, however, it is not a screaming buy at these rates.


kvg : sir, surya roshni is going down without any pull back . do u see more downside from this level. since you have take position in this stock for trading . should i remain in this stock now also. i bought around 40 levels.
Ramesh S Damani : I can't predict day-to-day movements. I still own it.


william : Reference press note 18, I got the feeling that existing ventures do not gain. What effect will this have on GPI and VST if the modi's and ITC do not play ball
Ramesh S Damani : It is a weapon for the MNC.


Anit : GEOMETRIC : One time your favourite is again in the news with ambition of USD 100 M by 2007 and most analyst expect they will attain it. For that it should grow 60% for next 3 yrs. thats phenominal and hence one of the best scrip. how do u rate GEOMETRIC now
Ramesh S Damani : Troubles seem to be behind it. My sense is that they will do well over the next few quarters.


InfyRock : Sur, Plssssss.Pls reply, as I am trying to take ur view from last 2 weeks, Hi ramesh, Need your valuable advice, I am having 100 HLL [Get Quote] & 100 IPCL [Get Quote] shares, SHud I Sell or Hold?
Ramesh S Damani : I am sorry, I don't advice on individual portolios.


SUDHIR : INSPITE OF GOOD RESULTS MACMILLAN IS NOT RERATED SUFFICIENTLY. I THINK NOW WITH THE GROWTH IN PLACE IT SHOULD COMMAND PREMIUM VALUATIONS
Ramesh S Damani : I think it will happen over the next few months. Results were exceptionally good.


BASANTMAHESHWARI : Are you aware that RJ has pared his holding in Pantaloon [Get Quote] by half (206k)Was it because of the company diluting equity to Bennet and colman or just a casual stroke of profit booking. ALso Morgan has taken over 4% stake in Trent and has also bought over 350k of pantaloon.Seems the Retail story is being discovered but any idea why the man who saw tomorrow would have sold?Please let us know?
Ramesh S Damani : That you would have to ask him. My sense is that he remains bullish on Pantaloon.


Anit : NUCLEUS : Are result out today. if yes. did u see it
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, they were good.


vikrant : plz ask ramdeo agarwal that does he believe in going short on mkts .. i think u will do a gr8 job of hosting the show and carry the legacy of jack d schwager further
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks a lot.


nlaxmann : sir, i was informed by my bro0ker that mkt is likely to fall heavily as fm is shortly going to name the brokers responsible for may 17 crash. please give your view
Ramesh S Damani : It's not that simple for the market to rise or fall.


barrracuda : gati at a market cap of 90crs and exp sales of 325 crs looks cheap especially if yu read their new expansin plans into china and singapore refer to todays hindu businessline
Ramesh S Damani : I am recommending it to my clients. A right issue is due, but business prospects are looking up.


vikrant : any book u can recommend about contrarian investing ..
Ramesh S Damani : Look under the name David Drennan.


SUDHIR : SIR I AM FED UP WITH MACMILLAN INSPITE OF GOOD RESULTS IT SEEMS TO BE LANGUISHING
Ramesh S Damani : Fedup, anger in the markets cost us money. Conviction pays....


sureshmakhija : sir good evening urrecomending encore software and u also hold it rrecently i read that market for simputers are not so good and encore predicted that this year they r going to sell 25000 siputer though they have sell 3000 in last three years any other reason u r bullish on it plzz comment thanx
Ramesh S Damani : They do more than simputers. Remember you are looking at a market cap under 10-15 crs. The risk reward is in your favour.


sush : viewing the current market scenario which sector do you think is better to invest - cement or steel?
Ramesh S Damani : I would think cement.


Anit : BALNER LAWRIE : Results are not upto the mark . Is it good opportunity to buy as LOGISTIC businerss where u are bullish will grow in coming qtrs.
Ramesh S Damani : I have not seen the results. Look at the consolidated results though to get a true picture.


mansri : Sir, your basket of IT stocks � KALE,CREST,NELCO,LOGIX MICRO and value picks � GODREJ [Get Quote] IND,OPTO,GOLDIAM were recommended by you about an year back. What is your re-view now on the stocks? Pl advise? I bought some of the stocks on your recommendation and still hold
Ramesh S Damani : The value picks have done well the basket is still struggling. I would hold on. I would add Gati (120) to the value basket.


barrracuda : nuclueus has done 6 crs for the qrt and macmillan 43 crs for the full year great results alli can say is thanks a million
Ramesh S Damani : Both stocks are entering period of heady growth over the next year. My sense is they will be re-rated. Look at the margins in Macmillan ITES business (60%)... Wow...


channdai : sir to issue notices to brokers responsible for may fall is ridiculous as in a free market anybody can enter or exit at their free will?? do u agree??
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, but they may have done hammering, etc. Let's see the charges.


Sharad : Ou of the recent Results,,,Which one was the most impressive (except Macmillan)???????
Ramesh S Damani : Nucleus.


amandeep : The promo on CNBC looks great and now we can see u on NDTV too , always better to seeing and hearing you more often , sir any new ideas ... names of any scrips please..
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks. Nothing new as I said previosuly look at Gati.


skk : you refer gati to your clients. Do u have broking account of any other person ion your firm other than you. If u have we would like to open account with you only.Is it possible
Ramesh S Damani : I don't take new clients. Sorry.


sureshmakhija : sir do u studied abt abee info consumable sir is it time to take intial invetsment in this scrip
Ramesh S Damani : Have not got much details.


vikrant : do u think that with the CRB index rallying the dow would go into a big selloff mode shortly as dow utilities is also falling heavily
Ramesh S Damani : Macro investing is not my thing.


william : ok thanks. lets hope they use it soon. Have u had time to take a look at Mt Shivalik. Volumes shooting up - may be operators at play. Do u feel these small breweries will be takeover targets for new entrants into India
Ramesh S Damani : It is logical.


TINI : sir, balmer lawrie is a diversified company and all the business run under the company are making decent profit. then what it lacks to its pears. is management is not good or is it a psu that no one is taking seriously. please reply thanks
Ramesh S Damani : Other PSUs like Concor, BHEL have been taken seriously. So will this in time.


amandeep : gati has gone up about 20 percent is last 3 trading secessions mainly on Monday when u spoke on NDTV and you still deny your clout with the masses , is there any more proof needed of the trust that we the common have in you
Ramesh S Damani : As I say sometimes you get lucky. I have owned Gati for years. Only now they are seeming to be ready


bhavya : sir wizards of dalal street is mr ramesh damani. what he says goes well. but he cant say wether markets will fall further or not. i am sure. whats your view on it sir ?
Ramesh S Damani : The wizards are the gentleman you will be seeing. I am a student.maybe doing a bachelors.


amandeep : Would GATI at 120 be a buy or would you advice a correction before a buy
Ramesh S Damani : That is for you to decide. I am not a good timer.


InfyBoy : Mr. Damaniji, What is your view on IDBI Bank, Dabur [Get Quote] at the current levels? Advance thanks for your answer!!
Ramesh S Damani : IDBI seems to be the better fancy in the market. Dabur looks good.


sureshmakhija : , thanx for replying sir dont u think that oil and gas sector and fertelizer sector arestill untouched in this bull run is it right time to invest in that sectorisr plzz comment thanx
Ramesh S Damani : I prefer gas sector.


JesseLivermore : Peter Lynch would buy Dena Bank [Get Quote] by a logic similar to why he bough virutally every S&L that went public in states. Do you agree? (notwithstanding the huge NPAs)
Ramesh S Damani : I am not so sure.


Rahul : sir can you tell us something about GATI? They are into what?
Ramesh S Damani : Logistics


barrrracuda : balmers results have been flat they have done 8crs for the qrt and 11.7 for the nine months management says they are in the process of divesting the entire 61% stake and the matter has been referred to the centre
Ramesh S Damani : Is that consolidated ?


ushti : sir, hv immensly benefitted from yr comments; sir pl give yr opinion on my present hold'gs ie encore soft, i flex, indo matsu app,foursoft, carol info pl; am an housewife will remain grateful to u; regards
Ramesh S Damani : I don't comment on individual portfolios. I would look to buy some stable companies as an add. The rest seem okay.


InfyBoy : Sir, if the actual value of UB Holdings is more than the CMP, Even then Why there is no participation from FIIs or MF or Institutuions??? Please Clarify
Ramesh S Damani : It will happen. I can't predict the time though.


pawanddrpk : sir you are our ideal. we only follow you. you are only the single person who never misleads the investor. we believe you in closed eyes
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks. That means a lot to me.


ran : dear sir, Hotel/Software/ITES/BPO all are doing well. I request you which allied sector will derive benefit from this. Is Thomas cook [Get Quote] is a better bet. Please advice.
Ramesh S Damani : Maybe but it is not cheap.


dhruv : SIR WHAT IS UR VIEW FOR MID DAY AND JUBILANT ORGANOSIS. DO U OWN THEM
Ramesh S Damani : Mid-day - good long term at these levels. I have no view on the other one.


stockstudent : Mr Damani, did you get a chance to read Jim Roger's interview in the annual issue of Fortune?
Ramesh S Damani : Of course.

rakesh : IS GATI CORPORATION A SISTER COMPANY OF THE AGARWAL'S OWNED TRANSPORT CORPORATION OF INDIA [Get Quote] GROUP
Ramesh S Damani : They are related but run separately.

ValueInvestor : Buffett says in the shoret term the stock market is a voting machine and in the long term it is a weighing machine ? Does this apply to Indian markets also ?
Ramesh S Damani : To all markets and all equity.

barrrracuda : on the lighter side have yu had a look at the KINGFISHER SWIMSUIT CALENDAR 2005 especially the photo of vijay mallya with shilpa shetty is great
Ramesh S Damani : You think they would send me a copy. But no. Not to shareholders?

JesseLivermore : Indian hotels have a hidden budget hotel company within it. Do you think it can become the main company in a few years?
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, I doubt it though. The economics of the business are poor due to highland costs.

kapil : do u hold aegis logistics in your portfolio.
Ramesh S Damani : Yes, though I trade in it.

sureshmakhija : sir in this bull run u have a lot of scrips to inevst but the funds are limited is is good to hold the srips which u have bought or u have to book profits and then move to others scrips plzz comment thanx in advance
Ramesh S Damani : Hold the good scripts.

ran : Dear sir ,Thanks very much.Very happy to see your reply on Thomas cook. A MNC with good bonus issue track record and available at a P/E of 19, for long term is it a bad investment
Ramesh S Damani : Look at the turnover. Even after100 yrs turnover is under 100crs. I own it, but they are not growing as I would like them.

amandeep : would it be possible for you to appear on the daily chat show of CNBC giving advice , if they can get an ( ambrish Baliga ) with due respect to him , but they are not a patch on the advice we get from you..I am sure the TRPs will be higer ... CNBC are u listening .. but please befor u recommed a stock on any channel do share it with us first cause of the damani effect
Ramesh S Damani : I dislike coming so often on TV and I mean it -- market timinig is not my strenth. Ambrish is a good friend and a smart guy.

BrijNiralay : Alfa Laval: Damaniji: A diversified co with strong Dividend history ? Your take pls ? Your fan
Ramesh S Damani : Good companies give great dividends.

rakesh : MY DEAR RAN,THOMAS COOK IS NOT WORTH BUYING NOW, AS THE RESULTS ARE NOT THAT GOOD.THOMAS COOKS MAIN SUSTENANCE WAS THRU ITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE DIVISION, WHERE THE MARGINS ARE VERY THIN NOW.AND THERE IS ALREADY A TALK IN THE CORPORATE CIRCLES THAT THOMAS COOK OVERSEAS MAY SELL OF ITS INDIAN ARM,AM I RIGHT MR DAMANI
Ramesh S Damani : Your logic is correct.

channdai : sir where can i get BOOK VALUE of the scripts?? i have checked nse bse moneycontrol etc. but i can't find them??pl guide..
Ramesh S Damani : Try capital markets.

BrijNiralay : Peter Lynch says: If the growth percent is 12 % and dividend yield is 3 %. Addition of the two divided by a P/E of 10 would give a factor of 1.5 which would be a good investment. ideally he looks for 2 ( which is fab). Any cos in this range ? - Your fan
Ramesh S Damani : Nothing comes to mind.

balloon : SRF Polymers [Get Quote] (holding company for SRF) - investment valued at three times the CMP of 62. My logic is similar to yours on UB Holdings...am i going rite? and also ur views on Oil marketing companies co's. Kindly reply ?
Ramesh S Damani : Logic seems correct

channdai : sir i have funds but i am confused as many many good companies and recommandation and i can't keep track in each so pl guide me for long term ..
Ramesh S Damani : Investment requires time and patience.

Neewbieatstock : Sir mcdowell's been buzzing again last few days, anything specific
Ramesh S Damani : No news.

kbc : AS A FRESH INVESTOR WITH 2 LACS, KINDLY SUGGET 3 SCRIPS TO START WITH....THANX
Ramesh S Damani : Look at the transcripts for stocks that I have recommeded. Thanks all I will be on vacation for the next 3 weeks. So no show. Good luck and happy investing. NO SHOW FOR NEXT 3 WEEKS SINCE I WILL BE ON VACATION.



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An MBA from California State University, Ramesh Shrichand Damani, is one of India's most respected brokers. Mr Damani is a frequent commentator on financial issues on CNBC and Star News.

Join the Ramesh S Damani chat every Tuesday at 1600 IST

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