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Fundmen see Sensex at 4800
BS Markets Bureau in Mumbai |
August 21, 2003 09:54 IST
The bull run is here to stay. In the short term, the Sensex can cross the 4500 level and zoom to 4800.
This seems to be consensus of a string of fund managers contacted by the Business Standard.
Off the record, some fund mangers are even seeing the Sensex crossing 6000.
However, on record they do not want to stick their neck out. The general tone on the Dalal Street is optimism laced with caution.
The stock markets are all set to march ahead from the current levels in the medium term after witnessing a minor correction and consolidation at the current levels.
The Sensex is expected to cross about 4400-4800 in the next few months till the run up to general elections beginning November, fund managers said.
The euphoria on the sustainability of rally rises from the fact that unlike the previous rally which was based on more of circular trading and market rigging (during the peak of K-10 stocks), this time the rally is supported by fundamentals and has spread right across the length and breadth of the various sectors.
Jignesh Shah, strategist, ASK Raymond James, said: "The markets are being re-rated simply because of the strong fundamentals prevalent in the economy in general and the corporate sector in particular."
The reasons attributed to the upbeat expectation are better operational efficiency displayed by corporates which have resulted in better profitability, good monsoon to spur domestic demand, vibrant commodity cycle at both global and domestic level, higher retail demand.
Hanu Bhatia, vice president-equities, Parag Parikh Securities, said: "The market is able to sustain at this level because the rally this time around has been broad-based. There is not a single sector that has been left out. Software and pharma stocks are expected to perform well from this current level. The market is likely to touch a 4200 level. No sharp corrections are expected in the short term. All heavy index-based stocks are on a strong roll and lot of international enquiries are pouring in."
The constant foreign portfolio investments are adding fuel to fire. The FIIs have been consistent buyers on the markets even at the current higher levels.
"This displays the strength of the equity markets and the expectation of sustained rally," an analyst at a predominantly foreign mutual fund said.
However, there is some amount of caution prevalent in the market. There is scepticism that the market may well see a minor correction downwards before consolidating at the current levels and then head for a rise.
"The Sensex is likely to consolidate at current levels before making a fresh move. We expect the index to be range-bound with a strong support at 4000 levels," an analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities said.