Search the Internet          Tips  Sites: Finance, Investment

Monsoon raises hopes of good harvest

BS Agriculture Editor

The prediction of a normal and timely monsoon this year has generated optimism about another good agricultural harvest, dispelling the spectre of drought in several parts of the country.

Good monsoon precipitation will facilitate higher hydro-power production, boosting overall economic prospects, analysts feel. It will, thus, add to the "feel-good factor" on the economic front, they say.

The India Meteorological Department has predicted that the total rainfall in the country during the four-month monsoon season (June to September) will be 101 per cent. Besides, the rainfall will be of the long-term average of 88 cms, with a possible error of plus or minus 4 per cent.

The monsoon will start on time with showers likely to break over the Kerala coast around June 1. Normally, it advances to Mumbai by June 10 and further to Delhi by around June 29, covering the entire country by July 15.

This will be the fifteenth good monsoon in a row, including one above normal in 1988. Thus, it will be the third long spell of normal or excess monsoon rainfall in the past 100 years. The earlier two spells were of 20 years between 1921 and 1940 and 13 years between 1952 and 1964.

This time, it would be around 104 per cent of the long-range average in the northwest, 99 per cent in the peninsula and 100 per cent in the northeast, with a possible error of plus or minus 8 per cent, the meteorological department's director-general, R R Kelkar, said.

Of the 16 broad global atmospheric parameters taken into account for predicting the performance of the southwest monsoon, 11 have been found favourable for good precipitation this year. Only five parameters, including the El Nino that causes weather aberrations in many parts of the globe, were unfavourable, he said.

"Though El Nino has started emerging from February last, it is still under observation. The long-term studies show that its impact on the Indian monsoon is declining," Kelkar said.

Economic analysts feel that the impact of the monsoon goes far beyond agriculture. Since it affects the overall hydrological cycle, it influences the availability of water for irrigation, power production and other domestic and industrial uses. This apart, it has a strong bearing on the rural demand, improving outlook for the manufacturing sector as well.

The meteorological department has been issuing long-range monsoon forecasts based on an indigenously developed statistical model since 1988. Its predictions have gone off the mark only on three occasions -- in 1994, 1997 and 1999.

Now, it has fine-tuned its model by changing four of the 16 parameters used. It has started taking into account the temperature conditions of different regions of the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The logic is that these conditions have a more pronounced impact on the Indian monsoon than those in the Pacific Ocean, represented by El Nino.

Theoretically, in the case of global warming, the monsoon should become even stronger, Kelkar said. "This is because the land warms up more than the oceans and the monsoon performance depends more on the temperature of the land than that of the ocean," he explained.

The meteorological department has also increased the number of meteorological sub-divisions in the country from 35 to 36. The additional one comprises Chhattisgarh. Besides, it has raised the number of meteorological districts (different from administrative districts) from 424 to 523.

Powered by

ALSO READ:
The Rediff Budget Special
The Rediff-Business Standard Special
Money