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India's agricultural output seen down 4.9%

The country's agricultural output by tonnage is likely to fall by 4.9 per cent in the year to March 2003 due to widespread drought, independent forecaster Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said on Tuesday.

Rainfall during the first two months of the monsoon, which runs from June to September, was 32 per cent less than the long-period average, hurting 76 per cent of the country's total cropping area, it said in its monthly report.

"Weak rains in June and very scanty rains in July have caused extensive damage to the 2002 kharif crops," it said. The kharif or winter-harvest crop is sown in June-July and harvested in October-November.

Farm output grew by 7.4 per cent in the past year mainly because of a sharp rise in the production of foodgrains and oilseeds, it said.

But the economic think-tank said this year's foodgrain production was likely to dip 5.8 per cent to 199.56 million tonnes, while output of nine major oilseeds was expected to slip by eight per cent to 18.44 million tonnes.

"We estimate that this widespread drought condition is likely to lead to a eleven per cent fall in kharif foodgrain crop," it said.

Weather officials said on Tuesday several regions of north India had received heavy showers late the previous day, breaking a dry spell, and it was likely to continue raining in those parts in the coming days.

But traders said yield losses due to deficient rains in the past two months could not be reversed.

The economic forecaster said the rice crop had been severely hit by patchy rains in major growing areas, with yields possibly dropping by 10 to 20 per cent.

"Expecting a drop in yields and some rains in mid-August, we expect the kharif rice output to be 70 million tonnes. This would be 12 per cent lower than output in 2001," the report said.

Groundnut output was estimated to decline by 17 per cent to 6.1 million tonnes, while soybean production was forecast at 4.15 million tonnes, down by 29.4 per cent.

The think-tank said cotton output could drop by 12 per cent to 10.5 million bales -- of 170 kg each.

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