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July 9, 2001
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US-64 NAV estimated between Rs 8.81 and 9.74

N Mahalakshmi

A simple calculation based on data revealed by the Unit Trust of India suggests that the net asset value of the infamous Unit Scheme 64 is in the range of Rs 8.81 and Rs 9.74. The computation of the NAV is based on last year's figures on market value of US-64 investments, sales and repurchase during the year and assumptions about the performance of the scheme based on the actual performance of the equity markets.

Inputs for this were provided by Delhi-based mutual fund tracking firm Value Research. Last year, the scheme had an NAV estimated at around Rs 13.40, calculated on the fund's market value of investments as revealed in the balance sheet as on June 30, 2000 at Rs 20,5.94 billion.

The unit capital at that time was Rs 151.46 billion in 15.15 billion units. So, the NAV of the scheme would have been in the region of Rs 13.40 per unit (market value divided by 1514.626 units). Also, the fund had an exposure of 72 per cent in equities and 28 per cent in debt.

If we assume that the unit capital was constant during the year, and the fund performed as well as the overall market, then the NAV this year would have been Rs 11.24. The key assumptions here are that the equity portion of the fund fell by 27 per cent (equivalent to the fall in the BSE Sensex) and the debt assets generated a 12 per cent return, and there were no inflows and outflows.

But the UTI has already conceded that about 2.37 billion units were redeemed by the fund as the unit capital for this year is down to Rs 127.78 billion. UTI has said that net outflows during the year were to the tune of Rs 33.01 billion.

This suggests that the average redemtion price was about Rs 13.94 (net outflows divided by number of units redeemed during the year). And since the fund was buying-back units as a price above the NAV, it must have further eroded Rs 6.40 billion or 50 paise from the NAV.

Then again, the fund has declared a dividend of Rs 1 this year. Accounting for this the NAV should be around Rs 9.74 in the best-case scenario. If we further assume that 21 per cent of equities (making up the US-64's exposure to the ICE sector) depreciated by 61 per cent which is equivalent to fall in the BSE IT index and the return on the debt portfolio was also only 10 per cent, then the final NAV should be around Rs 8.81.

Analysts say that if the NAV of the fund is any lower it would suggest that the fund has severely underperformed the market this year. "The fund may have had to make provision for some non-performing assets particularly the debt instruments" analysts add.

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