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Straight fight between BJP alliance and Congress front in Gujarat

The stage is set for straight contests between two fronts -- the Congress and its allies and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance which bagged 19 of Gujarat's 26 seats in the 1998 general election.

The state goes to the polls on Sunday.

The merger of Shankarsinh Vaghela's Rashtriya Janata Party with the Congress has added a new dimension to the current election. Last year, Vaghela's decision to contest the election alone led to a division of anti-BJP votes.

Due to a negative swing of two per cent, the Congress bagged only seven seats against its 1996 tally of 10 seats. The two polls saw a three per cent negative swing for the Congress. The BJP benefited from a three per cent positive swing that brought it 19 seats, three more than its tally of 16 in 1996.

According to a UNI analysis, the Congress had hoped that Vaghela's party would eat into the BJP votes and it would stand to benefit. However, the Muslim votes shifted to the RJP and the Congress got buffeted by the negative swing.

The Congress and RJP were about to strike an electoral deal the last time, but Sonia Gandhi's huge rally here made the party overconfident of causing a dent in the BJP bastion on its own.

This time, the Kargil issue and Atal Bihari Vajpayee's leadership are the BJP campaign planks, but the anti-incumbency factor against Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel and the party's internal conflicts may be encashed by the Congress.

Gandhinagar, Kapadwanj, Mehsana and Vadodara are among the key constituencies in the state. Union Home Minister Lal Kishinchand Advani, who had won from the Gujarat capital in 1998 with a massive margin, is being challenged by former chief election commissioner T N Seshan as the Congress candidate.

Former chief minister Vaghela is contesting the election from Kapadwanj besides Union ministers Kashiram Rana and Dr A K Patel from Surat and Mehsana respectively as BJP candidates. Yet another former Union minister Urmilaben Patel (Congress) is in the fray from Vadodara.

North Gujarat is the economic power house as the state capital, major milk producing areas and commercial centres are located in the region which has seven parliamentary constituencies -- Ahmedabad, Banaskantha, Gandhinagar, Kapadwanj, Mehsana, Patan and Sabarkantha. Of these, the BJP captured six seats leaving one for the Congress in 1998. In 1996, the BJP tally was five and the Congress two.

In terms of the vote swing, the Congress suffered a three per cent negative swing while in spite of winning, the BJP lost five per cent of its vote base, the analysis said. The RJP, which had fielded its candidates in six seats, polled 18 per cent of votes in 1998.

As far as the social structure is concerned north Gujarat is a prosperous region. Half the electorate is literate. Patels and Vaishyas are the dominant communities. Almost 95 per cent of the electorate are engaged in trade, industries and service sector.

Mehsana is one of those constituencies where women voters outnumber men. Dr A K Patel has won this seat since 1984. Almost half the voters are literate and two thirds are agriculturists. It is also a Patel dominated constituency, with the community having 35 per cent of the votes.

Kapadwanj is a BJP stronghold; party candidates have won this seat continuously since 1989.

Central Gujarat consists of seven Lok Sabha constituencies -- Anand, Bharuch, Chotta Udaipur, Dohad, Godhra, Kaira and Vadodara. It has been a Congress bastion, managing to stem the saffron wave to a great extent.

The Congress won six out of seven seats in 1996, leaving only the Bharuch seat for the BJP. In 1998 it lost one more, Vadodara, to the BJP.

The voters profile shows almost 40 per cent literacy and 35 per cent with earning capacity. Scheduled castes and tribes constitute more than the half the electorate. Almost 25 per cent of the voters belong to the Patel community followed by Kshatriyas.

South Gujarat has three parliamentary constituencies -- Bulsar, Mandvi and Surat. The BJP has won two seats; the Congress one in the last two elections. The Congress suffered a negative swing of two per cent.

Almost half the electorate in this tribal dominant belt are literate and 40 per cent have earning capacity. Agriculture is the main occupation and one third of the electorate is involved in industry.

In Surat, Union Textile Minister Kashiram Rana is in the fray against Pacchigar Rameshchandra Rupen of the Congress and 11 others.

Saurashtra, which produces over 30 per cent of the country's groundnut, consists of nine constituencies -- Amreli, Bhavnagar, Dhandhuka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Kutch, Porbandar, Rajkot and Surendranagar.

The BJP draws much of its strength in the state from the Kutch- Saurashtra region. It lost only one out of nine seats in 1989, 1991 and 1996, but won all of them in 1998 with a positive swing of about 30 per cent over the previous election.

In 1984, when the BJP was routed all over the country, it still maintained a good performance despite failing to win even a single seat. In the political, social and economical configuration, Patels play an important role here.

Besides Patels who constitute about one fourth of the electorate, Koilis and Kshatriyas play an important role in deciding the political outcome.

Landowning farmers number more than 50 per cent of the electorate. The BJP has a strong grip over them and the Opposition parties try to consolidate other castes.

UNI

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