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With 12 matches to go across the two Super 12 groups, here’s a look at what all 12 teams need to do to book their spots in the tournament knockouts.
The Super 12 Group encounters have turned out to be interesting, throwing a few surprises. While India have been dealt a body blow following back-to-back losses – they are below Namibia in the points table are on the brink of elimination, -- West Indies’ campaign is also in the doldrums.
England, who beat Sri Lanka on Monday, are by far the most consistent team in the tournament and have one foot in the semis now with four wins from four matches -- moving to a perfect eight points from four Group 1 matches.
But what are the chances for other teams to qualify for the semis?
With 12 matches to go across the two Super 12 groups, here’s a look at what all 12 teams need to do to book their spots in the tournament knockouts.
GROUP 1
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points
Maximum points needed to reach semi-finals: 10 points
ENGLAND
First – Eight points – four matches - NRR of 3.183
Remaining opponents: South Africa
What they need to do to reach the semi-finals: They are virtually in the knockouts having 8 points in their kitty.
While both Australia and South Africa can still join England on eight points, not only would they each have to win their remaining games -- for the Proteas that includes a match against England -- they would need to win significantly enough to overturn England’s massive NRR lead.
A victory over South Africa in their final group game would take NRR out of the equation and cement their already stone-tight grip on top spot.
In short: They’re virtually already into the semi-finals.
SOUTH AFRICA
Second – Four points – three games – NRR of 0.210
Remaining opponents: Bangladesh, England
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
South Africa have bounced back well since their opening defeat against Australia but their fate is still not in their own hands.
The Proteas could theoretically lose both their remaining matches and still make the semi-finals but it would take a perfect set of results in every other group game for that to happen and would leave them at risk of being knocked out on NRR – they are only second to England on NRR currently in their group.
Also, they could win both their remaining games and still not make the next stage with the possibility of all three of England, Australia and themselves finishing on eight points.
If they only win one of their remaining matches, they’ll need Australia to drop points in at least one match and preferably for that loss to come against the West Indies rather than Bangladesh.
In short: Winning both matches should see them through, winning one match might see them through, winning no matches will likely see them exit the tournament.
AUSTRALIA
Third – Four points – three matches – NRR of -0.627
Remaining opponents: Bangladesh, West Indies
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope
Australia were firmly on course for the semi-finals until a big defeat against England neutered their NRR, leaving their fate in the hands of others.
Behind South Africa on NRR, their road to the final is identical to the Proteas’ in everything but opponents.
Given they have already played world No.1s England, their final two fixtures are easier on paper than South Africa’s. Conversely, they still must play defending champions West Indies, who themselves could be chasing a semi-final spot when the sides meet on Saturday.
In short: Winning both matches should see them through, winning one match might see them through, winning no matches will likely see them exit the tournament.
SRI LANKA
Fourth – Two points – four matches – NRR of -0.590
Remaining opponents: West Indies
What they need to do: Win and pray
With just one match to go in their Super 12 campaign, Sri Lanka can finish on a maximum of four points.
That could still see them going through to the semi-finals but they’ll need a miraculous set of results.
Outside of beating West Indies themselves, they would need the following results:
Bangladesh beat South Africa and Australia
West Indies beat Australia
England beat South Africa
With those results, they would still need a serious upswing in their NRR and a drop off for their competition’s.
A loss ends their hopes entirely.
In short: Sri Lanka’s hopes look very slim but there is a world in which they make the semi-finals.
WEST INDIES
Fifth – Two points – three games – NRR of -1.598
Remaining opponents: Sri Lanka, Australia
What they need to do: Win and pray
Defending champions West Indies’ campaign got off to the roughest of starts against England, with their NRR decimated after being bowled out for 55. Their hopes were hurt further in an eight-wicket defeat against South Africa before they revived their campaign with a three-run win over Bangladesh.
Their chances of reaching the next stage look very slim but they aren’t out of the race yet.
If they can collect four points from their remaining two matches, they will not only bolster their chances but hurt fellow contenders Australia’s, ensuring Aaron Finch’s team finish on a maximum of six points.
If South Africa also drop points in one of their two remaining games – Bangladesh, England – then all three of the sides could finish on six points bringing NRR into the equation. As things stand, West Indies are at the back of the line for NRR, so they would need things to change significantly here.
While the West Indies could make it through to the semi-finals on four points in theory, a loss to Australia would definitely end their tournament.
In short: If they win both matches they have a slim chance of making it. If they win one match they have almost no chance of making it. If they lose both matches or just lose to Australia then they are out.
BANGLADESH
Sixth – zero points – three matches – NRR of -1.069
Remaining opponents: South Africa, Australia
What they need to do: Win and pray
Things look grim for Bangladesh, who have zero points from their three games so far.
Like Sri Lanka, they need the magical five-teams-on-four points scenario to come to fruition. For them, this means winning both their remaining games against Australia and South Africa and for the following results:
Sri Lanka beat West Indies
West Indies beat Australia
England beat South Africa
With their NRR currently very unhealthy, they still require a major shake-up of things here.
In short: They need to win both their games and hope for something miraculous.
GROUP 2
Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points
Maximum points required to reach semi-finals: 10 points
PAKISTAN
First – Six points – Three games – NRR of 0.638
Remaining opponents: Namibia, Scotland
What they need to do: One win should be enough
Alongside England, Pakistan have looked like the team to beat at this tournament, beating India by 10 wickets before impressive wins over New Zealand and Afghanistan.
Victory in their next game against Namibia would see them seal a spot in the semi-finals, while a loss to Namibia followed by a victory over Scotland would still almost certainly be enough. It would take the stars to align cruelly for a win not to be enough for Pakistan to progress.
They’ll need to win both to guarantee a first-place finish to avoid a likely semi-final against world No.1 England.
In short: One more win almost certainly gets the job done.
AFGHANISTAN
Second – Four points – three games – NRR of 3.097
Remaining opponents: India, New Zealand
What they need to do: Winning their remaining matches should be enough
Afghanistan have their fate in their own hands after convincing wins over Scotland and Namibia on either side of a tough defeat to Pakistan, leaving them with the healthiest NRR of the group.
They can almost certainly lock down their spot in the semi-finals by winning each of their last two games, but that won’t be easy with matches against India and New Zealand to come.
The only unknown here is the prospect of Namibia winning all of their remaining matches to open the possibility of a three-way tie on eight points at the top of the table with themselves, Afghanistan and Pakistan. NRR should hold Afghanistan in good stead if that happens.
Given the health of their NRR, a win over New Zealand would likely be enough on its own for Afghanistan unless India can register seismic wins in each of their last three matches or Namibia go on the prior mentioned winning run.
If they fail to beat New Zealand but beat India they will require the Black Caps to lose to either Scotland or Namibia – they would also be at risk of being leapfrogged by either Scotland or Namibia.
If they lose both their remaining matches, Afghanistan will almost certainly bow out of the tournament with an improbable list of results needed to see them through.
Afghanistan’s path to the semi-finals will become clearer after Pakistan’s match against Namibia on Tuesday.
In short: Victory over New Zealand should be enough
NEW ZEALAND
Third – Two points – two games – NRR of 0.765
Remaining opponents: Scotland, Afghanistan, Namibia
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches
On paper, New Zealand have got their two toughest games out of the way, suffering a loss to Pakistan before winning comfortably against India. That has them firmly on course for the semi-finals.
If they win their remaining three matches they will be guaranteed a spot in the next stage.
A loss to Afghanistan would likely see them bow out of the tournament given the Asian nation’s super NRR.
A victory over Afghanistan paired with losses to either or both of Scotland and Namibia would see them relying on other results.
In short: Winning their next three matches locks them in, winning two out of three is likely to be enough as long as one win is against Afghanistan
NAMIBIA
Fourth – Two points – Two games – NRR of -1.287
Remaining opponents: Pakistan, New Zealand, India
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches and hope
Having registered a famous win over Scotland in their first ever Super 12 match, Namibia are still in control of their own fate despite a chastening defeat to Afghanistan.
If they win all three of their remaining matches, they will have one foot in the semi-finals. Of course, that won’t be easy given their next three opponents are Pakistan, New Zealand and India.
They could also likely finish on eight points but still go out on NRR behind Pakistan and Afghanistan.
A loss in any match from here will leave them relying on other results, with two defeats almost definitely knocking them out, and three certainly.
In short: They’re on track but said track is rough.
INDIA
Fifth – Zero points – two games – NRR of -1.609
Remaining opponents: Afghanistan, Scotland, Namibia
What they need to do: Win and hope
Among the pre-tournament favourites, India find themselves on the brink of elimination after just two matches following heavy defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand.
Their likeliest road to the semi-finals is registering big wins over each of their next three opponents while hoping Afghanistan beat New Zealand by the barest of margins so they can catch up on NRR.
A loss in their next game would end their hopes, with both Pakistan and Afghanistan uncatchable on six points.
Any loss leaves them relying heavily on other results going their way even more than they already are.
In short: India’s prospects look grim and they’ll need a favour from Afghanistan against New Zealand.
SCOTLAND
Sixth – Zero points – Two games – NRR of -3.562
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India, Pakistan
What they need to do: Win and hope
A heavy first-up defeat against Afghanistan before a loss to Namibia has left Scotland with slim chance of progressing but they are mathematically alive.
If they can win their next three games – a big ‘if’ since those games are against New Zealand, India and Pakistan – they will have six points to their name, which could be enough.
They would need a plethora of results elsewhere to go their way, with a single win to Afghanistan or two to either Namibia or New Zealand likely to end their hopes given their weak NRR.
In short: They need something incredible to happen.