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April 23, 2008

Sri Lanka slipping badly

M J Manohar Rao and Srinivas Bhogle

The boot is on the other foot in Sri Lankan cricket. While Sri Lanka's Test match performance has improved appreciably, they are slipping dangerously in one-day internationals.

World Cup runners-up Sri Lanka (42.30) have now dropped to the eighth place in the Rediff ODI rankings after a string of losses, including the recent 2-0 away defeat against the West Indies.

Australia (68.24) continue to top the table, but not by much. South Africa (64.63) are just behind.

New Zealand (56.42) are third, but India (55.12) are fast catching up after their big win in the Commonwealth Bank tri-series in Australia.

Pakistan (49.89) are fifth after their clean sweep at home against Bangladesh (8.35).

Table A shows the current ODI rankings.

TABLE A: CURRENT ODI RANKINGS (as on April 22, 2008)

Team WI TI ODI RBI=
WI * 0.80 + TI * 0.20 Ranking

Australia 66.55 75.00 68.24 1

South Africa 59.96 83.33 64.63 2

New Zealand 58.02 50.00 56.42 3

India 51.04 71.43 55.12 4

Pakistan 47.36 60.00 49.89 5

West Indies 38.61 75.00 45.89 6

England 44.53 50.00 45.62 7

Sri Lanka 48.71 16.67 42.30 8

Bangladesh 10.44 0.00 8.35 9

Zimbabwe 10.44 0.00 8.35 10

Bangladesh are ahead of Zimbabwe at the third decimal place and therefore retain the ninth place.

The 2007 World Cup has now gone out of the 'window of reckoning' to calculate the tournament index (TI). So the finalists, Australia and Sri Lanka, drop modestly in the rankings; and the big World Cup losers, India and Pakistan, gain a little.

The corresponding Reliance Mobile ICC ODI rankings (as on April 22, 2008) are South Africa (127), Australia (127), New Zealand (113), India (113), Pakistan (110), England (105), Sri Lanka (105), West Indies (99), Bangladesh (47) and Zimbabwe (18).

Details

It is almost impossible to define a 'perfect' ranking scheme in any sport. However schemes that use reasonable evaluation criteria, and the most appropriate datasets, usually give the best results.

The Rediff ODI rating, now published regularly for more than six years, is a judicious combination of every team's weighted index (WI) and tournament index (TI).

The WI, based on the most recent ODI encounters between every pair of teams as shown in Table B, is essentially a weighted average that considers the 'opposition strength' (because wins against strong opponents must be rewarded more) and the 'home-away-neutral' factors (because teams usually win more at home, and lose more playing 'away').

The TI factors in a team's performance in tournaments and series (and thereby seeks to better reward wins in 'big' matches).

TABLE B: ODI SCORECARD (as on April 22, 2008; used to compute WI)

Aus Ban Eng Ind NZ Pak RSA SL WI Zim

Australia H
A
N
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 6
4 / 7
2 / 2
2.5 / 6
4.5/7
1.5 / 2
2.5/3
0 / 3
2 / 2
4 / 5
0 / 0
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 5
2 / 2
3 / 4
3 / 5
4 / 4
2.5/3
5 / 8
3 / 5
3.5/4
4 / 4
0 / 0

Bangladesh H
A
N
0 / 3
0 / 3
1 / 4
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 1
0 / 2
0 / 0
1 / 2
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 3
0 / 3
1 / 2
1 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 2
0.5/3
0 / 4
0 / 2
5 / 5
5 / 9
1 / 1

England H
A
N
3 /7
3 / 6
0 / 2
3 / 3
3 / 3
1 / 1
4 / 7
1 / 7
0 / 2
0 / 2
1.5/ 5
2 / 5
2.5/5
2 / 5
1 / 1
3 / 4
2 / 7
0 / 1
0 / 5
3 / 5
3 / 5
1 / 3
3.5/6
1 / 1
1.5/3
4 / 4
1 / 1

India H
A
N
2.5/7
3.5 / 6
0.5 / 2
0 / 0
2 / 2
1 / 2
6/ 7
3 / 7
2 / 2
1.5/3
2 / 7
1 / 3
3 / 5
4 / 5
1 / 2
2 / 4
0 / 4
2 / 3
2 / 3
0 / 3
2.5/ 4
3 / 5
1 / 5
3 / 4
3 / 5
2 / 2
4 / 4

New Zealand H
A
N
3 / 3
0.5/3
0 / 2
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 3
3.5 / 5
2 / 2
3 / 5
5 / 7
1.5/3
2 / 3
4 / 5
0 / 5
1 / 1
5 / 6
1/3
2 / 2
2/4
0 / 0
0 / 2
4 / 5
2.5/6
3 / 4
1 / 3
2 / 2
1 / 1

Pakistan H
A
N
0 / 0
1 / 5
0 / 1
5 / 5
3 / 3
2 / 2
3 / 5
2.5/5
0 / 1
1 / 5
2 / 5
1 / 2
5 / 5
1 / 5
0 / 1
2 / 5
1 / 4
0 / 1
2 / 3
2.5/3
2 / 3
3 / 4
3 / 4
2 / 3
5 / 5
5 / 5
3 / 3

South Africa H
A
N
3 /5
1 / 4
2 / 2
3 /3
3 / 3
1 / 2
5 / 7
1 / 4
1 / 1
4 / 4
2/ 4
1 / 3
2/3
1 / 6
0 / 2
3 / 4
3 / 5
1 / 1
4.5/6
0 / 5
4 / 6
5/5
6 / 6
0 / 1
3 / 3
3 / 3
3 / 3

Sri Lanka H
A
N
2 / 5
1 / 4
0 / 4
3 / 3
2 / 3
2 / 2
2 / 5
5 / 5
2 / 5
3 / 3
1 / 3
1.5 / 4
0 / 0
2 / 4
2 / 2
0.5/3
1 / 3
1 / 3
5 / 5
1.5/6
2 / 6
1 / 2
0.5/3
1 / 1
2 / 2
5 / 5
1 / 1

West Indies H
A
N
3 / 8
0.5/3
2 / 5
4 / 4
2.5/3
2 / 2
2.5/6
2 / 3
0 / 1
4 / 5
2 / 5
1 / 4
3.5/6
1 / 5
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 4
1 / 3
0 / 6
0/5
1 / 1
2.5/3
1 / 2
0 / 1
6.5/7
3 / 4
1 / 1

Zimbabwe H
A
N
0 / 4
0.5/4
0 / 0
4 / 9
0 / 5
0 / 1
0 / 4
1.5/3
0 / 1
0 / 2
2 / 5
0 / 4
0 / 2
2 / 3
0 / 1
0 / 5
0 / 5
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 3
0 / 5
0 / 2
0 / 1
1 / 4
0.5/7
0 / 1

The TI is currently based on a time 'window' spanning the last 12 months; i.e. the period May 2007 to April 2008 (see Table C).

TABLE C: TOURNAMENT POINTS TALLY (as on April 22, 2008; used to compute TI)

Team I vs B
May 07 P vs SL
May 07 I vs SA
Jun-
Jul 07 E vs WI
Jul 07 B vs SL
Jul 07 SA vs Z
Sep 07 NW
Aug-
Sep 07 E vs SL
Oct 07 I vs A
Sep-
Oct 07 P vs SA
Oct 07 I vs P
Nov 07 NZ vs SA
Nov-
Dec 07 WI vs
Z
Nov-
Dec 07 A vs NZ
Dec 07 NZ vs B
Dec 07 P vs Z
Jan 08 SA vs WI
Jan-
Feb 08 NZ vs E
Feb 08 CB Ser
Feb-
Mar 08 B vs SA
Mar 08 WI vs SL
Apr 08 P vs B
Apr 08 Score TI

Australia 1 / 1 1 / 1; 1 / 2 3 / 4 75.00

Bangladesh 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 5 0.00

England 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 2 / 4 50.00

India 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 2 / 2 5 / 7 71.43

New Zealand 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 2 / 4 50.00

Pakistan 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 3 / 5 60.00

South Africa 0 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 1 / 1 5 / 6 83.33

Sri Lanka 0 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 2 0 / 1 1 / 6 16.67

West Indies 1 / 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 1 / 1 3 / 4 75.00

Zimbabwe 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 3 0.00

Our next update will appear in June 2008 after the tri-series in Bangladesh and the ODI series between England and New Zealand.