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'I remain bullish on the market'Mumbai, January 31, 2003: 'But in case of a bio warfare now, markets will fall sharply,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.ricky : Is it ok to retain the shares of PNB or not Ramesh S Damani : The sector is in favour, and at least for a quarter looks strong. aks : sir, should we hold BPCL or exit by booking some loss Ramesh S Damani : Hello everybody. Thanks for joining. Let's start. BPCL is good value at current rates. I would hold on to it. BASANTMAHESHWARI : The order issued by SEBI directs Hinduja TMT not to deal in securities as an intermediary in the capital markets for a period of two years. It does not prevent the Company from accessing the capital market. The Company is free to raise funds by way of an IPO / Rights issue / ADR / GDR / Preferential allotment etc.Indusind Media (subs) holds 130 crores in cash which is more then adequate for the current expansion programme (read Solomonm Raj’s interview on Moneycoontrol.com) so no need for further cash!!! With the CAS bill the Co. will add 20 to 25 crores per month (it reaches out to 43 lac homes)in the topline instead of 7 to 10 crores presently. Also the Alliance factor is a short term phenomenon(3 to 4 months). If one is willing to hold the stock for the medium term shouldn’t investments be aggressively made in to the company.I hold a decent number of this stock since the 2 digit levels and have been adding on in the current mayhem . .Also the Company, as part of its IT/BPO combin Ramesh S Damani : The stock has gone down on huge volumes. That is a concern. At prices above Rs 225, it would have technical resistance. It will take some time before it can recover. hemant : Ramesh bhai i have following questions regarding mcdowell. 1) Investment rational/ logic? 2)Likely triggers? 3) How long should i hold? please explain in detail if possible. Ramesh S Damani : Not in detail but in short. 1) For Rs 200 crore market cap you get 35 per cent of India's spirits market. In a country where 50 per cent of pop is below 21 years of age. 2) Merger with herbertsons and mallya unlocking value. 3) At least two years. BASANTMAHESHWARI : HTMT is also focusing on high-end applications like engineering design and R&D services and has successfully completed pilots in engineering design software services for two companies in Europe - an automobile major and an engineering services company.Please give a fundamental call on the company. Ramesh S Damani : This is still in the initial stages. Remember at Rs 300, the market cap was Rs 1200 crore. Let the stock settle down before we make a call. jjpandit : sir good after noon. about eil yester day baijal said they are sold it with in 20 to 3 month. is it good buy ? or one has to invest in ites script as u mention earlier. Ramesh S Damani : At Rs 300 it has a market cap of Rs 1800 crore. That does not make it very cheap. BASANTMAHESHWARI : You have been recommending Pharma stocks for quite a while. I bought Lupin at Rs144Should I trade into it or just keep it for the long term. I have no independent analysis on the Pharma sector and would request you to guide me into it. Thje Co. it appears should report an EPS of Rs 27 in the current year.Moreover I heard that the Co. is ito introduce a couple of in the novel drug delivery system (NDDS) in the oral controlled release systems. Is this something like the GDr Reddy Ranbaxy situaation.Could you elaborate further on this. Ramesh S Damani : I have a small quantity of Lupin. The company has a lot of debt. If they manage to sell a stake, that would be a good news. Generally, because of generic market booming they should do well. baracuda : falling bond prices,forex going out due to hihger oil prices.india paying 2bin loans will make money dearer for banks thus affecting their bottomline so should every rise should be used to exit Ramesh S Damani : I think forex remains high. Nothing to worry. BASANTMAHESHWARI : I-Flex seems to have a unqiue business model.it is a Software cum FMCG company. The flexicube product is finding buyers all from Nigeria to the IMF.The basic cost of making a product is incurred just once and revenues keep flowing on. It is like a mango tree. The Company should report an EPS of about Rs 52 in the current year. All funds are heavily invested this stock except Alliance.I hold a few shares. Should I just trade into it or hold it as a investment stock?also if Iflex is doing well shall Subex and Fortune informatics also do well being product companies. Ramesh S Damani : Don't mix these companies. Subex and Fortune don't count. i-flex is a star. I have a small position in i-flex, but let's wait for the results. jjpandit : Sir as you mention earlier sectoral fund allocation 30 pharma 30 ites and rest in others like bank and mcdowell can i incest rest of money at current mkt price? Ramesh S Damani : I think so. It is a good time to invest. BASANTMAHESHWARI : RJ and Birla mutual have been very bullish on NIIT for quite some time now. Should the decline in its stock price be used to buy more of the stock only as a value pick. The Company says that training is at the bottom and the only way where it can go is up. But then this is what the company has been saying for the past couple of quarters its report. Ramesh S Damani : Precisely. Not too enthusiastic about NIIT. Management has not delivered. AnandBhatt : Good afternoon Sir,Any idea why Infotech Enterprises has dropped so much?Any negative news news you have heard of?Is it a fund selling or just general bear hammering.I bought some at 200 a while ago. Ramesh S Damani : Just in line with the market. Let's wait for the results before making a call. rajesh : Are you equally bullish on Pharma stocks as IT enabled Co.If so will you advice me to shift from IT enabled co.s to Pharma stocks AS I have no exposure to Pharma stocks. Which stocks you like in Pharma? Ramesh S Damani : No I would mantain ITES and add pharma (new money) or sell something else. hemant : Thank you ramesh bahi do you mean mr.mallya will merge mcdwell & herbertsons in two years? Ramesh S Damani : He is working on it. sagar1 : dear damaniji, Htmt has fallen so much over last 2 or 3 days, does it make it a good buy at current prices or what is the lowest price u can forsee if there is panic in mkt again? Ramesh S Damani : Let's wait till it settles down. jjpandit : sir today's news is good for tata infotech -cmc-tataelxsi will be merge in tcs after tcs ipo ? your valuable comments.please Ramesh S Damani : It is still a year away. Can't tell exactly. It looks good for them though. rajesh : Sir, If you have Rs. 100 to invest in Brewaries, In what proportion you invest in Mcdowell, UB, Kingfisher. What portion of equities will you advice to invest in these co.s for 1 yr period. Ramesh S Damani : For two years about 10 per cent. AnandBhatt : Thanks.Sir,should one use this war as a n opportunity to invest or will a war affect the ITES sectors and the general market in a bad way.[the CFOs of Infi,Wipro and Satyam did say on CNBC today that war was a concern]Pla reply. Ramesh S Damani : A war will affect the prospects of the company since travel is delayed and work is not shifted. That is for sure. baracuda : i was just listening to cnbc europe they keep telling that equity is not the investment class one should be in now.dont think the war will be over in a few days .the war is not aboutweapons of mass destruction but to decrease saudiand otherarab nations dependenceand controllon the opec so change the regime in iraq.but there is noalternative in iraq at the present who will run their oil machiary after sadam thus throwing the whole oil market in chaos between 35-40dllars it will shaveoff1%of the glabal economy not to spare india.your comments please Ramesh S Damani : It is impossible to predict these things. On a scale of 0 to 10, 10 would be a bio warfare. In case of a bio warfare, markets will sell off sharply from these rates. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Have you read the report (Business world Jan 13, 2003 ) on the software developed by TVS Electronics called the e-shops.It is to be useed in all the small grocery and kirana stores around 300 stores have already signed it and the company hopes to book around 3000 customers. Is this another Product company in the making.?? Ramesh S Damani : That is one of the reasons I bought it. M-cap is still small. However, let's see results. nikhil : what is your call on tisco,tata power Ramesh S Damani : I like and own a small quantity of both. They look attractive at current rates. nikhil : which are your favourite banking stocks other then SBI Ramesh S Damani : Karur Vysys Bank I own. BASANTMAHESHWARI : SOftware companies are complaining because the DOllar is loosing against the rupee. My point is can we identify companies which are predominantally exporting to Europe as the Euro has appreciuatd quite a lot against all currencies including the rupee. One is MAstek which you don't line any other which comes to your mind Ramesh S Damani : It is a good exercise. Let me think about it. rajesh : Sir, do you think there is any change in fundamentals of tech co.s and IT enabled sector as the stocks are falling very sharply. will you increase yr weightage to IT enabled cos. Do you thing slowdown in USA will benefit IT enabled Cos. Most.Yr comments on results of Tata Infotech and Max(I). Ramesh S Damani : It has been a tough quarter for software services companies. ITES results aren't out. We will take a view after full results are out. AnandBhatt : Dear Sir,pls answer,what are you advising your clients.Should one use this decline to buy in. Ramesh S Damani : I remain bullish on the market. BASANTMAHESHWARI : Alliance’s Indian Mutual funds all taken together hold about 17 lac shares of HTMT on Dec31. Out of this Alliance sold about 400000 of that to Pruicici through a block deal on Jan 13 The MF figures for Friday is a paltry 12 crores negative. Is the market making much more about the Alliance factor then is warranted. Ramesh S Damani : The volumes suggest some serious selling. nikhil : sir i am a small investor and i have lost 78584 rupees in HTMT i will never invest in htmt, what is your view Ramesh S Damani : Losses are a part of investing. Sorry to hear about your loss. Thanks for joining. See you next week. |