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'Market headed higher over the next year'Mumbai, March 30, 2004: 'I am optimistic. Market may trade in a range for a while, but it is headed higher over the next year,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.Ramesh S Damani : Sorry for being so late. 1000apologies. lets start amar : Hi Damanji, What is your projection on the cement industry? Ramesh S Damani : Better times are around the corner oneinvest : Should one hold shares allotted in PSU-IPOs? If so for how long? Thanks Ramesh S Damani : i would take a chance with ONGC. A lot of interest is developing in the script kuber : Damaniji, any view on Soma Textiles? Ramesh S Damani : Sorry, I don't follow it Neewiebieatstock : SIR a few techinical anlyist i know are quite bearish they say the nifty should go to 1480 levels now, whats your views. isint that very bearish Ramesh S Damani : i am more optimistic. market may trade in a range for a while but it is headed higher over the next year udayr : with the turnaround in the market which mid-caps do u recommend? Ramesh S Damani : generally the same old ones udayr : pls specify. thanks in advance. godrej? moschip? mcdowell? welspun? Ramesh S Damani : among the small caps, godrej ind, Goldiam look okay. other are vesuvius. Mcdowell, as i have said before, is for the very patient pra1 : Sir, Instead of buy on declines, the market now seems to be sell at highs. do u agree. Ramesh S Damani : in a bear market you sell on rallies, if you think we are in a bull market hold on and be patient susmita s : goodvening sir, ur view on ABG heavy in? Ramesh S Damani : i am not currently following the co SHUBHNAKERGHOSH : any good longterm investment scrips at present prevaling at low rate and get a chance of mulitbagger in ciming bull time can you suggest ?????? like your fav BEL Ramesh S Damani : i would buy a basket of low prices. tech stocks name suggested before. Among blue chips i still like the outsourcing stocks vikas6 : Mahindra ugine : Do u think along with Tisco this is also good bet in steel sector plus its intrinsic value? Is current price good to enter or we should wait Ramesh S Damani : mahindra ugine is too speculative small cap. While they are doing well in the current year they are too dependent on scrap prices. tisco is the best bet in the steel sector sureshmakhija : good evening sir thanx for coming sir. ind swift is going for a being leap they are entering in api contact manufacturing contact resarch and also going to file dms and andas. plz tell me whether is it good to invest in this company recently reliance capital persons was also visited in their plant plz comment Ramesh S Damani : with small co's like ind-swift you need to think about mgmt quality. if you have the confidence, by all means invest in it ssunil : sir your view on skf bearings company is doing well good Ramesh S Damani : they are doing well ankit : Sir, I had acumalated more than 6000 BEL on your reco. @ 60 to 120. I have sold almost 50% @ 230 onward.I am still holding the rest. Should I stay invested or should sell @ 550 upward? Ramesh S Damani : i would give it a long rope. order book is good and co is doing well vikas6 : LOGIX MICRO : Though u bought at 12-15 range but u were advising even at 28-30 range . Do u think it has potential to test its previous high of around 45/.Did u sell some at those level Ramesh S Damani : these stocks are very speculative and tend to bounce around a bit. i still own it susmita s : sir should i still hold the shipping co.?i own g.e shipping, varun shipping & chowgule Ramesh S Damani : i think they will do well, freight rates have slipped but arestill buoyant, they seem to be in for good times. I own ge and varun Neewiebieatstock : Sir since I've started working in the filed I've realised one thing no one in the market knows everything no one knows what the market is going to do tomorrow. It's only a judgment call of what you think and many a times people are wrong.... contrary to what everyone outside the market thinks Ramesh S Damani : that is absolutely correct, calling the market everyday is for fools or liars. We make guesses. buying stocks is much more of a certain process ssunil : rameshji, vesuvius caters to the steel plants with metalurgical plants with steel prices softning with china slow down would not be that negative on stock price Ramesh S Damani : i don't think the steel market has slowed down, just small fall in prices, sureshmakhija : sir me small investor. How can I know about the management? whatever we know is what we read in news paper and business magazines. then how can we know about particular company? Ramesh S Damani : i think then trust the big names or "brands." search for co in your area of expertise charu : sir , is Wyeth Ledrel good bet at 380 Ramesh S Damani : i would think mnc pharma will be a good sector shelly : Uncle, you had fancied scrips like Shree Rajasthan, Logix Micro, Opto Circuits, Mazda Control, Goldiam, Godrej Industries, Linc Pen and Goldiam. Now that these scrips have fallen considerably, would you advocate a buy? Ramesh S Damani : yes on most of them, for logix the first sign of turnaround may comein Q1. the rest should pay good dividend and are at 3-5 yield. susmita s : sir r u still optimistic abt goldiam? Ramesh S Damani : yes AnandBhatt : Sir, You had earlier said on CNBC last year, - one of the signs of a market topping out is a flood of IPOs coming in the market? Do you get worried with all what we have lined up ICICI, TCS [BIG ones] and god knows how many small ones are in line? Ramesh S Damani : yes. but generally that happens 2 or 3 years into a bull run (Shourie raising 100,000 crore.) bullmarket is too young at this time sudhir : sir going by the earnings & projected earnings companies like macmillan should command a PE of over 20 that means a price over Rs.400. its a pity that it is not rerated. Ramesh S Damani : it will happen, though not as soon as we wish it to vikas6 : Infotech Enterprise :My worries continue on this share. Its dipping and dipping everyday though more of dollar-rs reason now. Do u see any respite for Infotech and Visual. Do they have any value . Ramesh S Damani : i believe at these valuations they do, they are out of favour as a sector so y-o-y have to be patient Learningcurve : Sir, with due respects to you and without implying any motives, many of your favourites are just listed only on the BSE. Scrips like Kingfisher, United Breweries, Logix Micro, Goldiam, Shree Raj, Krebs Biotech, Super Spinning to name a few. Just coincidence? Many investors shy away from companies with mere BSE listing as they believe manipulation is relatively easier on the BSE than NSE. Your thoughts, please. Thank you. Ramesh S Damani : nse lists only medium/large cap co's. small caps are on bse. so you have little choice if you want to own small caps Neewiebieatstock : sir radico has been having a really good time you think mcdowell could follow or its too soon for that, any reason why radio has run up so much so fast Ramesh S Damani : mallya is still probably partying and not waking up to his responsbiilities to shareholders rtc : sir what is your view on Polaris Software . even if u don't follow please answer to this Ramesh S Damani : somehow they have lost their way, never had a very clear focus, so i am underweight sureshmakhija : sir what r u r views on dishman pharma whether one should go for IPO Ramesh S Damani : i think it will do well vikas6 : Infotech / Visual : We are ready to be pateint but Dollar is not. With the rupee appreciating even in the future as predicted by everyone will these companies ever recover Ramesh S Damani : the car co's in japan recovered, so can the IT companies Shankar : Ramesh ji , As an NRI investor i feel that the chat that we are having with you is so wonderful and so helpful Ramesh S Damani : thanks please do keep logging in AnandBhatt : Yes I heard that Shourie wants to raise 1 lakh crore per year for the next 5 yrs.[Correct me if I am wrong] That's totally raising 5 lakh crores. Even though its good for privatizations it does mean very bad news for the secondary markets. They will be doomed with that kind of paper. Ramesh S Damani : when that happens it may provide a top for the market. but a long way off still vikas6 : Sundaram Finance : At 215 / it is looking steal. Do u think it is very good price to enter or there is anything wrong with co. Ramesh S Damani : looks okay to me, i own it rtc : sir, what is your view on kopran. their balance sheet looks strong with 130 crores .r they doing well . can we cosider some exposure in that . what is your view on wellwin industries Ramesh S Damani : dont follow it Meghna : Will Bicon just take-off after listing of will it drop and settle down at a lower price? Is it possible for you to let us know when at what (approximate) price one can enter? Ramesh S Damani : its too early to make such a call, sorry susmita s : sir r u still optimistic abt goldiam? u suggested it on 10th nov @ 34.75 , & now its @46. is it wise to buy at this rate? Ramesh S Damani : it is still cheap and they are having a good year sureshmakhija : sir as u always consider management on top and that is the correct way of analysis of a company the what about mcdowell mcdowell mangment is not good as u said that mallya is busy in parties plz comment Ramesh S Damani : i do think you are right, it is the sheer valuation of this business compared to its worth and potential that attracts me. Look at the valuation of other emerging market co's. it makes no sense radheshyam : car companies recovered in a decade in Japan-- but It companies will recover in less than 10 months Ramesh S Damani : they are currently hedged. However it is going to be a painful period vikas6 : Friend Mr. Damani : Is mazda control has some other name as i can not find this company on capital amrket site Ramesh S Damani : that is the name i know AnandBhatt : Sir, you isint TAta Honeywell a net importer. So would it not benefit with the apprecaiting rupee.Does it make sence then to buy companies that import rather than export since the rupee is definately just one way for sure.Would you recommend any stocks with import business models? Ramesh S Damani : your logic is right. look at a)domestic cos that are shielded from rupee fluctuation or look atco's with imports. however some ofthe best co's are in export.we cant ignore that sector, just pray mgmt has pricing power sri : sir, will petronet pickup once they started operation? what do you suggest? Ramesh S Damani : yes it is a good bet at these prices AnandBhatt : Sir, do Opto circuits, Linc pens, Mazda controls export to the US? Ramesh S Damani : the first 2 do reddyme : sir, tata honeywell is falling every day. please let know what's happening. i have invested heavily in this scrip Ramesh S Damani : with poor volumes and with the restof the market sureshmakhija : sir last time u said that u r going to visit in nelco plz tell what happened there and what u r analysis about that company Ramesh S Damani : still trying to set up anappointment vikas6 : ZODIAC : Do u think textile will also be hit because of Rs. , can we buy zodiac at current rate or is there any other good textile scrip u want to share with us at current price Ramesh S Damani : zodiac looks okay to me at current prices. they have a big domestic business SHUBHNAKERGHOSH : now all the news papaer like business standra and capital marktet all are suggesting macmillan as long term bat to play which was your oldest recommdationcan we add mac mill at current rate with what time horision??? and price traget ?? can we take it as mulitbager??? Ramesh S Damani : if you are not invested i wouldrecommend a purchase. other wise hold on till the sector finds favour Sundi : Are Buffet's principle of Value Investing relevant in the current context of Indian Stock Market and Economic conditions or should we wait for some more time before these principles become applicable Ramesh S Damani : no they are appliacable at almost all times, peoplw ignore realities in financial markets vikas6 : GILLETTE : I want to know about Gillette at this price ., If we are betting on domestic play , ist it one of the best play at this price Ramesh S Damani : yes and they import a lot. also i own it Retirementblues : Damaniji, namaskaar. Can I hope to invest some money in a cheap stock like LNG and Power Trading in the hope that it will gain capital appreciation and dividend? Sirji, what price do you foresee for these two companies in three years time? Very grateful for your time. Ramesh S Damani : i think power trading will open with a gap and do well 'petronet wil appreciate more slowly Sundi : Sir u always talk of unlocking of value in McDowell .Can u explain what does that mean and how it will happen ( I own 1000 shares of Mcdowell ) . Ramesh S Damani : 1) show real earnings2) sell to a strategic buyer3) focus on the business4) Hostile takeover AnandBhatt : Today On CNBC some top guy from Lupin said that the RE has already affected pharma cos, they did not expect such a rapid appreciation, Even eepak Ghaisas the CEO and CFO of Iflex said that they are trying to bill in Euros in Europe and the Yen in Japan but for everyone 70 to 80% business is from the U.S.They are all worried whether its IT, Pharma, Auto ancillary. Ramesh S Damani : it is a worry, no question Neewiebieatstock : sir do you really see a hostile takeover in time to come ? Ramesh S Damani : in a modern capitalistic society it is all but inevitable kuber : Damaniji, One texiles co. Jamshri Ranjit singh Spg & Wvg - this co belongs your family group Ramesh S Damani : too a damani, but not of my family radheshyam : damaniji- I am yet to see a hostile takeover in India- why is it not happening when some companies are available at very low Book values? Ramesh S Damani : mainly it is frowned upon by the establishment vikas6 : Freinds : What is code for MAZDA CONTROL. what is its current price Ramesh S Damani : around 12 susmita s : , sir r u still optimistic abt goldiam? u suggested it on 10th nov @ 34.75 , & now its @46. is it wise to buy at this rate? Ramesh S Damani : yes i am they are doing well and having a great year.thanks all for joining and again sorry for being late., |