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Year 2050: These economies will dominate the world

Last updated on: August 29, 2012 08:52 IST

Year 2050: These economies will dominate the world

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With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift, points out the latest study by HSBC. Titled, 'The World in 2050', the report highlights that the economic shift is likely to continue.

Read here to find out which economies are gearing up to take on the world:

China

Ranking: 1

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $25.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $17,759

HSBC study points that China will overtake the U.S. in size sometime over the next 50 years as its population surges to 1.43 billion. Further there are some challenges to overcome which have the potential to raise China's growth rate further.

Source: HSBC

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Photographs: Reuters

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US

Ranking: 2

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $22.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $55,134

If a country is already rich for its given infrastructure, such as the US, it will constrain further growth.

But, it is expected that though the potential of growth will be less compared to other emerging economies, the size of its economy will have doubled while adding roughly 90 million people to its population.

The US with better demographic outlooks, are relatively successful at maintaining their positions.

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Photographs: Reuters

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India

Ranking: 3

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $8.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $5,060

India is expected to become the third largest economy in the world. Even though, here are certain problems in government administration, the Indian economy has again been opened up to the demand and technological know-how of the more developed economies.

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Photographs: Reuters
Tags: , India

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Japan

Ranking: 4

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $6.4 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $63,244

The Japanese catch-up effort was bolstered significantly by government policy. Large corporate groups (keiretsu) and banks had close ties, and the Ministry of Trade and industry provided administered guidance to firms and banks which influenced what were deemed 'key industries'.

Indeed, the criticisms were such a hindrance to Japan's global economic reputation that it made a significant donation to the World Bank for it to complete the 'Miracle Book' to examine the issue.

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Photographs: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters

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Germany

Ranking: 5

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.7 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $52,683

Those with very high levels of education, such as Germany, were forecast to grow much more quickly than they achieved.

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Photographs: Thomas Peter/Reuters

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United Kingdom

Ranking: 6

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.6 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $49,412

The United Kingdom is expected to grow by more than 10 million people over the next half century, helping double the size of the economy, according to HSBC.

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Photographs: Kieran Doherty/Reuters

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Brazil

Rnking: 7

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $3.0 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $13,547

Brazil has developed close trade ties with the emerging markets, which appears to have accelerated its development. It is also expected that Brazil will be the largest economy in Latin America.

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Photographs: Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters

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Mexico

Ranking: 8

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.8 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $21,793

Mexico would have the strongest growth rate in the LATAM region as it has relatively high levels of schooling, and low government interference. HSBC estimates that, while adding fewer than 15 per cent more new citizens, its GDP will more than quadruple.

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Photographs: Ivan Alvarado/Reuters
Tags: HSBC , LATAM , Mexico , GDP

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France

Ranking: 9

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.8 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $40,643

Although the French economy will continue to grow over the next four decades, the percentage of the population at work will decline.

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Photographs: Reuters

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Canada

Ranking: 10

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.3 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $51,485

HSBC estimates the country's population will swell to 44 million. This will help Canada maintain its no 10 position in 2050, as it did it 2010.

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Photographs: Mike Cassese/Reuters
Tags: HSBC , Canada

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Italy

Ranking: 11

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $38,445

Italy will drop out of the ten largest economies by 2050 as its population is on a decline and the growth rate of personal income is lower than other expanding nations.

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Photographs: Tony Gentile/Reuters
Tags: , Italy

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Turkey

Ranking: 12

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $22,063

Following the worst financial crisis in Turkey's history in 2001, the ruling administration embarked on an impressive political, constitutional and economic reform agenda, which was eventually rewarded with the formal launch of accession negotiations with the European Union in 2006.

HSBC expects this improving domestic political stability to be acknowledged by an "investment grade" status for Turkey in 2011.

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Photographs: Osman Orsal/Reuters

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South Korea

Ranking: 13

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $46,657

South Korea's demographic outlook isn't a lot better, falling by 32 per cent. South Korea will also see more than double-digit declines in total working population. But, according to HSBC strong increases in individual contribution to GDP will keep the country in the top 20.

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Photographs: Reuters
Tags: South Korea , HSBC , GDP

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Spain

Ranking: 14

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $2.0 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $38,111

Spain is expected to maintain a strong income per capita. This will be fuelled by the fact that its population will expand by some six million.

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Photographs: Reuters
Tags: Spain

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Russia

Ranking: 15

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.9 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $16,174

Russia is projected to continue its rapid expansion, but it scores fewer points for monetary stability and has a less-supportive demographic outlook than some of its Asian rivals, which limits its relative performance.

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Photographs: Reuters
Tags: Russia

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Philippines

Ranking: 16

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.7 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $10,893

HSBC predicts that Philippines will make meaningful progress increasing income per capita, advancing more than 10 spots.

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Photographs: Cheryl Ravelo/Reuters

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Indonesia

Ranking: 17

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.5 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $5,215

Indonesia will all see a strong growth in their workforce. Further, it is expected that Indonesia will demonstrate rapid rates of growth and as their education and policy systems develop, these are likely to be sustained over our forecast horizon.

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Image: Indonesian banknotes Rupiah
Photographs: Reuters
Tags: Indonesia

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Australia

Ranking: 18

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.5 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $51,523

According to HSBC, Australia's strong population growth along with well-defined education systems and capital markets, will allow it to remain in the top tier of income per capita rankings.

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Image: Sydney Harbor
Photographs: Tim Wimborne/Reuters
Tags: HSBC , Australia

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Argentina

Ranking: 19

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.5 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $29,001

HSBC terms Argentina as a growth nation due to its strong natural resource portfolio.


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Photographs: Reuters
Tags: HSBC , Argentina

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Egypt

Ranking: 20

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $8,996

Saudi Arabia, with the highest fertility rate, gets a significant boost to growth with the working population expected to growth by more than 70 per cent. Egypt isn't far behind. HSBC predicts that the growing population which will top 130 million people will push Egypt 15 spots into the top 20.

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Photographs: Reuters

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Malaysia

Ranking: 21

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.2 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $29,247

HSBC predicts Malaysian life expectancy and its relatively high level of schooling combined with above average fertility rate will help Malaysia in its rapid expansion.

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Image: Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Photographs: Beawiharta/Reuters

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Saudi Arabia

Ranking: 22

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $1.1 trillion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $25,845

The working population will rise by 73 per cent in Saudi Arabia. For now, it is the first of 22 countries to top the $1 trillion GDP mark.

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Image: Fireworks explode above a giant video screen in Jeddah
Photographs: Susan Baaghil/Reuters

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Thailand

Ranking: 23

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $856 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,674

Even though it is in top 30 ranking, Thailand is expected to suffer slightly from a lower percentage of its population.

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Image: Thai baht notes
Photographs: Sukree Sukplang/Reuters
Tags: Thailand

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Netherlands

Ranking: 24

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $798 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $45,839

According to HSBC, Netherlands' population will remain stagnant and its relative standard of living will rank it in the teens, just as it did in 2010.

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Photographs: Courtesy, Wikimedia Commons

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Poland

Ranking: 25

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $786 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $24,547

The current education system and average fertility rate, will more or less keep Poland in the same rank in 2050 as it was in 2010, says HSBC.

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Image: Polish currency is seen at PKO SA Bank in Warsaw
Photographs: Peter Andrews/Reuters
Tags: HSBC , Poland

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Peru

Ranking: 26

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $735 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $18,940

HSBC estimates that income per capita will grow at the second-fastest rate in Central and Southern America, behind only Bolivia.

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Photographs: Martin Acosta/Reuters

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Iran

Ranking: 27

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $732 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $7,547

With a good level of education, Iran would produce good growth rates. However, its income per capita will decline 9 spots.

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Image: Iranian rial banknotes
Photographs: Mushtaq Muhammed/Reuters
Tags: Iran

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Colombia

Ranking: 28

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $725 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $11,530

Colombia looks set to deliver the fastest growth rates in the LATAM region. HSBC points out that it will benefit from much lower inflation compared to peer countries in Latin America.

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Photographs: Eliana Aponte/Reuters

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Switzerland

Ranking: 29

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $711 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $83,559

According to HSBC, Switzerland's economic importance will diminish over the coming years, according to HSBC.

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Image: A general view of the Swiss Federal Palace (R ) and the building of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in Bern
Photographs: Michael Buholzer/Reuters

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Bangladesh

Ranking: 31

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $673 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $3,461

Also,

Pakistan

Ranking: 31

Size of Economy (Year 2000 dollars): $675 billion

Income per capita (Year 2000 dollars): $2,455

It is predicted that Bangladesh will jump more than 17 spots as its economy expands in the coming 40 years. Pakistan on the other hand will hold its place in the global trade as a strong textile producer.


Photographs: Andrew Biraj/Reuters

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