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Slowdown: RBI may halt rate hike

Last updated on: December 1, 2011 17:08 IST

A labourer pulls his handcart full of load on a rainy day in Agartala.

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Moderating economic growth and easing inflation may prompt the Reserve Bank to halt interest rate hike in the upcoming mid-quarterly credit policy review later this month, according to analysts.

With actual growth coming in well below the potential, there are 'dis-inflationary' pressures in the economy, Goldman Sachs economist Tushar Poddar said.

"We therefore expect inflation to fall to 6 per cent by March 2012. We expect the Reserve Bank of India to continue to ease liquidity, first through open market operations, and then by cutting the reserve requirements of banks," he said.

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Image: A labourer pulls his handcart full of load on a rainy day in Agartala.
Photographs: Jayanta Dey/Reuters.
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Slowdown: RBI may halt rate hike

Last updated on: December 1, 2011 17:08 IST
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A construction labourer carries bricks on her head at the construction site of a residential estate.

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India's GDP registered just 6.9 per cent in the second quarter this fiscal against 8.4 per cent expansion in the same period last year due to poor performance of the manufacturing, agriculture and mining sectors.

It is expected that RBI would cut interest rates by 100 basis points (1 per cent) in 2012, starting in April, Poddar said, adding that the slowdown in growth and the trajectory of inflation suggests that an earlier easing of policy rates may be appropriate, especially given the severe external headwinds.

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Image: A construction labourer carries bricks on her head at the construction site of a residential estate.
Photographs: Amit Dave/Reuters.
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Slowdown: RBI may halt rate hike

Last updated on: December 1, 2011 17:08 IST
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A worker climbs to fasten iron rods together at the construction site of a high-rise building in central Mumbai.

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch India Economist Indranil Sen Gupta said, "Given this backdrop of growth slowing and inflation peaking off, we are relieved that the RBI has finally begun Open Market Operations (Rs 1,00,000 crore by January) to cut the money market liquidity deficit and reduce undue pressure on interest rates."

With inflation likely to come off to 7.2 per cent by March, it expects RBI to cut rates by 100 basis points from April onwards.

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Image: A worker climbs to fasten iron rods together at the construction site of a high-rise building in central Mumbai.
Photographs: Vivek Prakash/Reuters.
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Slowdown: RBI may halt rate hike

Last updated on: December 1, 2011 17:08 IST
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A potter makes an earthen lamp at a workshop for the upcoming Diwali festival in Kolkata.

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RBI has hiked interest rates 13 times since March, 2010, to tame demand and curb inflation, which has been above the 9 per cent-mark since December last year.

The government and the RBI have accepted that high interest rates may hurt the country's growth prospects, but the apex bank has underlined that bringing inflation under control is its major agenda.

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Image: A potter makes an earthen lamp at a workshop for the upcoming Diwali festival in Kolkata.
Photographs: Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters.
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Slowdown: RBI may halt rate hike

Last updated on: December 1, 2011 17:08 IST
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A porter carries luggage of a passenger at a railway station in Kolkata.

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In the mid-year credit policy review, RBI had said inflation, ruling near the double-digit mark, will start cooling by December this year and is likely to come down to 7 per cent by March, 2012.

As far as food inflation is concerned, the rate of price rise moderated considerably to 8 per cent during the third week of November, from over 9 per cent in the previous weeks.

Nomura said in a report that as WPI inflation is likely to moderate slightly in November, in line with RBI's expectations, raising hopes that the central bank would keep policy rates unchanged at its meeting on December 16.



Image: A porter carries luggage of a passenger at a railway station in Kolkata.
Photographs: Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters.
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