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India, China leading global economic recovery: UN

Last updated on: May 26, 2011 10:38 IST

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Betwa Sharma from United Nations

The emerging economies of India, China and Brazil are leading the global economic recovery, according to a UN report released on Wednesday.

"The rebound has been led by the large emerging economies in Asia and Latin America, particularly China, India and Brazil," the report said.

The mid-year issue of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP), said that "weaknesses in major developed economies continue to drag the global recovery and pose risks for world economic stability in the coming years".

The report said that many developing countries have been able to use the policy buffers (in the form of ample fiscal space and vast foreign-exchange reserves) they had generated in the years before the crisis to adopt aggressive stimulus packages.


Image: Traffic moves at a busy intersection in New Delhi.
Photographs: Adnan Abidi/Reuters
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The report said that while developing countries continue to drive the global recovery, their output growth is also expected to moderate to 6.0 per cent on average during 2011-2012, down from 7.1 per cent in 2010.

It said that that China and India's GDP growth is also expected to experience some moderation in 2011 and 2012.

The report said that the volume of exports of many emerging economies, including Brazil, China, India and other developing economies in Asia, have already recovered to, or beyond, pre-crisis peaks.

The study said that exports of developed economies have not yet achieved full recovery and were still 8 per cent below the pre-crisis peaks seen in the third quarter of 2010.


Image: A woman walks past an urban art sculpture in Beijing.
Photographs: Jason Lee/Reuters
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The report said that world trade is expected to grow by about 6.5 per cent in 2011 and 2012, moderating from the 10.5 per cent rebound in 2010.

The report said that in 2011, global oil demand is expected to increase further.

Most of the demand growth will continue to come from emerging economies, especially China and India.

The report said that employment programmes like India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act have been effective.

It said that the scheme provides one hundred days of employment at the minimum wage to 43 million low-income households.

The report said that in India, the central bank is concerned with inflation, which has remained persistently high despite significant monetary tightening in 2010.


Image: Luxury apartment towers are being constructed in Sao Paulo.
Photographs: Paulo Whitaker/Reuters
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