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IMF downgrades India's growth projections

July 10, 2013 08:39 IST

IMF downgrades India's growth projections

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Lalit K Jha in Washington

Revising its economic outlook, International Monetary Fund (IMF) today marginally brought down India's growth rate projections to 5.6 per cent for this fiscal and 6.3 per cent for the next financial year.

This was slightly lower by 0.2 and 0.1 per cent respectively than the previous forecast released by IMF in its report in April.

Global growth is projected to remain subdued at slightly above 3 per cent in 2013, the same as in 2012, IMF said in its report released on Tuesday.

This is less than forecast in the April 2013 World Economic Outlook (WEO), driven to a large extent by appreciably weaker domestic demand, slower growth in several key emerging market economies and a more protracted recession in the euro area.

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Photographs: Reuters

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"Global growth increased only slightly from an annualised rate of 2.5 per cent in the second half of 2012 to 2.75 per cent in the first quarter of 2013 instead of accelerating further as expected at the time of the April 2013 WEO," the IMF said.

The multilateral agency said this underperformance was due to three factors-- growth continued to disappoint in major emerging market economies; recession in the euro area was deeper than expected, and the US economy expanded at a weaker pace, as stronger fiscal contraction weighed on improving private demand.

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Image: Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
Photographs: Joshua Roberts/Reuters

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The IMF said growth in the United States is projected to rise from 1.75 per cent in 2013 to 2.75 per cent in 2014.

In Japan, growth will average 2 per cent in 2013, moderating to about 1.25 per cent in 2014, it said, adding that the euro area will remain in recession in 2013, with activity contracting by more than 0.5 percent.

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Image: The US flag waves in the breeze above one of the entrances to the New York Stock Exchange.
Photographs: Chip East/Reuters

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According to the IMF report, at 5 per cent in 2013 and about 5.5 per cent in 2014, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is now expected to evolve at a more moderate pace, some 0.25 percentage point slower than in the April 2013 WEO.

"This embodies weaker prospects across all regions.  In China, growth will average 7.75 per cent in 2013–14, 0.25 and 0.5 percentage point lower in 2013 and 2014, respectively, than the April 2013 forecast,” it said.

The IMF said global growth will recover from slightly above 3 per cent in 2013 to 3.75 per cent in 2014, some 0.25 per cent weaker for both years than the April 2013 projections.

 


Image: An aerial view shows vehicles travelling on intersections at night in downtown Shanghai.
Photographs: Aly Song/Reuters

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