The Cabinet may this week decide on raising natural gas prices for the first time more than three years, a move which will earn the government over Rs 3,000 crore (Rs 30 billion) more in taxes and other levies annually.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs may this week decide to price all domestically produced natural gas as per a formula suggested by a panel headed by Prime Minister's economic advisor C Rangarajan.
The price as per this formula currently comes to $6.775 per million British thermal unit, 60 per cent more than current rate of $4.2 per mmBtu.
"Contrary to popular perception, we believe the government will benefit financially from an increase in the gas price," Deutsche Bank said in a research note.
The new price will apply to all producers with state-owned firms getting the new rates from current year itself while Reliance Industries would benefit from April next year.
Deutsche Bank estimated that 55 per cent of the increase in price of regulated gas (produced by state-owned firms like ONGC) flows back to the government in the form of royalty, tax and dividends.
"We also estimate that every $1 per mmBtu increase in APM gas price adds Rs 1,500 to the national exchequer," it said. Based on the Rangarajan formula, it expected the average annual price to be close to $8 per mmBtu from FY15.
"Given the government's aim to raise domestic gas production and the fact that incremental deepwater gas production in India is unviable below $6.5 per mmBtu, we believe a gas price below $7 per mmBtu beyond FY15