A retreat has been sounded in Anna vs govt battle
'The public perception at this stage of the battle is that the victory thus far belongs to Anna and his followers, but in reality it may turn out to be a victory of mixed proportions.' Strategic review of national security management
Unless one is able to convince the serving officers of the need for changes, reforms, new thinking and new concepts and ideas, even the best of task forces would fail to meet the objectives for which it was set up, says B Raman on the new task force set up to review our national security. Why the Karmapa issue could hurt Indo-China ties
The controversy is a sensitive issue which could have an impact on relations with China and could hurt the feelings and sensitivities of the followers of the Karmapa, say B Raman.

Will history repeat itself in Arab nations?
What happened in Iran post-1979 could happen in Tunisia, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world in coming months, warns B Raman

What the RAW's new leadership must do
The new leadership will be to have such an introspective exercise. The RAW has done great work in the past. It is capable of similar great work in the difficult years to come with the right critical approach and self-correcting action, says strategic expert B Raman.

Will the next Wikileaks expose India's corrupt?
While Wikileaks did not say in its message what the third instalment of their release would cover. However, a Reuters despatch from Washington DC said that classified US diplomatic cables reporting corruption allegations against foreign governments and leaders are expected to feature in the official documents that Wikileaks plans to release.

2 years later, we remain helpless against Pakistan
'The lack of vigorous action by the US against Pakistan for its involvement in the 26/11 strikes and its disappointing cooperation with India in the Headley case have shown that any high expectations of US cooperation with India against terrorism of Pakistani origin would be an illusion.'

What the Obama visit means for India and China
While Obama's visit to India has a strategic and economic dimension, what the visit portends for the US's relations with China is a big question, says strategic expert B Raman.

Pak's blackmail makes US pay up again
The Pakistan army's present confidence -- that the US will not act against it for its inaction against Al Qaeda -- will encourage more acts of terrorism against the US.

India needs new allies to deal with China
As the countries most threatened by China, India, Japan and Vietnam should put their heads together how to deal with it without unnecessarily creating a confron.

Commonwealth Games: Salvaging national honour
'A disastrous failure of the Games would not be just a failure of an incompetent India. It would be the failure of an emerging India and the damaging of its image as a democratic nation worthy of emulation.'

What India needs to do to make the CWG safe
Strategic expert B Raman examines the possible threats to the Commonwealth Games and how the various security agencies can tackle them.

IM mail hints at act of suicide terrorism
B Raman decodes the email sent allegedly by the Indian Mujahideen after the attack on tourists outside Jama Masjid in New Delhi.

Don't dismiss the Jama Masjid firing lightly
While there is no need for any panic, B Raman states that any casual approach to the firing outside the Jama Masjid in New Delhi would be unwise.

By criticising Pillai, Krishna has played into Qureshi's hands
By expressing his disapproval of Home Secretary GK Pillai in public, Foreign Minister SM Krishna has enabled his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mehmood Qureshi to justify his raising the issue of the former's disclosure to the media in the obnoxious manner he did, says B Raman

Lack of preparation hampered Indo-Pak talks
It was evident that no preparatory exercise for political and inter-departmental consensus-building in New Delhi before embarking on the trust-building exercise in Islamabad was undertaken.

India, Pakistan must go the 3 plus 3 way
'If the ministers spend their time throwing Indian dossiers on terrorism and Pakistani dossiers on Kashmir and river waters at each other, they will miss an opportunity for creating a possible and much-needed turning point in Indo-Pakistan relations.'

Why the Foreign Secretary met the Dalai Lama
Was the visit connected to China's recent actions vis-a-vis Pakistan?

Afghanistan: US should change tactics not generals
President Obama had been justifiably angered by McChrystal's irreverent remarks which appeared in Rolling Stone. His irreverent remarks caused considerable embarrassment in the Pentagon and the White House. His dismissal was inevitable.

Bhopal gas tragedy should be minutely documented
A major worry for the international community has been the danger of terror groups like the Al Qaeda using a chemical weapon to indulge in terrorism. Studies have been made of the possible scenarios and how to prevent and counter them. Dealing with a chemical disaster--deliberately caused by terrorists or other criminal elements or due to the criminal negligence of those producing and storing them for industrial and other purposes.

Why Dantewada's key to the battle against Maoists
Just as the Yenan model of revolution led to Mao Zedong's success in China, Dantewada in Chhattisgarh is similarly looked upon by Mao's Indian disciples as an ideal base for exploiting tribal discontent and capturing political power.

Obama attempts to impart momentum to Indo-US ties
The current Indo-US Strategic dialogue has given the Obama administration a fresh look at Indo-US ties and has helped focus attention on the traditional strengths between the two democracies, says strategic expert B Raman.

Why Headley's interrogation is a charade
A delay of eight months in giving India limited access to David Coleman Headley reduces the entire exercise to a charade. Should the Manmohan Singh government have literally colluded with the Obama administration in playing a fraud on the Indian people by creating an illusion of US cooperation? asks strategic expert B Raman.

Dr Singh's blind spots: Pakistan and Maoists
The prime minister's remarks on relations with Pakistan and on the Maoist issue do not bode well for our success in dealing with these two challenges to our national security in an effective manner, writes B Raman

US addressing intelligence gaps in Pakistan
The US may re-look its human and technical intelligence apparatus in Pakistan following the attack on seven CIA officers in Khost and the failed New York bombing plot, writes security expert B Raman.

Terror in Big Apple: A Pakistani hand?
The claim made by Qari Hussain Mehsud of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan taking responsibility for the attempted incendiary attack in the Times Square is now being taken a little more seriously by the FBI because the message making the claim had been recorded before the incident, writes security expert B Raman

Kasab is living proof of Lashkar's role in 26/11
'While Kasab was helpful in the investigation of the 26/11 terrorist attack, he was of no use in detecting and neutralising Lashkar's sleeper cells and the Indian Mujahideen.'

Is US okay with China supplying N-reactors to Pak?
By choosing to keep mum over China's plans to deliver two new nuclear reactors to Pakistan, the Obama administration has once again enlisted the co-operation of China in strengthening Pakistan's capacity in various fields. Indian policy-makers ought to take this seriously, writes B Raman

Madhuri case: Making an ass of ourselves
The government and our officers who have been talking to the media do not realise the importance of keeping the Pakistani intelligence guessing as to what Madhuri Gupta has been telling her interrogators. As for the media, it has converted the case into a slapstick serial, writes security expert B Raman.

Pakistan's IB is back in action
The Madhuri Gupta episode shows Pakistan's Intelligence Bureau is back from a relatively long hibernation, writes security expert B Raman.

A mole in an Indian mission can do great damage
Madhuri Gupta, the indian diplomat arrested for spying in the Indian mission in Islamabad, may not have access to sensitive information, but she has access to the high commission and could have planted transmitting devices and tapped phones, writes B Raman.

UN report on Benazir silent on Rehman Malik
What was the role of Rehman Malik, the present interior minister and a close confidante of Zardari, who had been nominated by Zardari as her security officer on behalf of the Pakistan People's Party? He was responsible for liaison on behalf of the party with the officials of the Musharraf government who were co-ordinating the security arrangements.

An urgent plan to deal with Maoist insurgency
Set up an auxiliary intelligence corps like the territorial army or the auxiliary air force. It should consist of part-time volunteers for intelligence collection by people in other professions who want to or are willing to help the intelligence agencies. Their links with the intelligence agencies must be protected by making the training course a short one and on an one-to-one basis, instead of holding it in a class where everyone becomes aware of the identities of others.

Why Naxals can easily set-up deadly ambushes
The CRPF and local police on anti-Naxal operations perform a thankless job but a few basic counter-insurgency measures could have prevented the deadly Dantewada attack, writes B Raman

Attack on US consulate: The Afghanistan of Pakistan
The available details regarding the fidayeen attack on the United States consulate in Peshawar, the capital of the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan on Monday, are still confusing.However, certain aspects of the attack are clear: It was a single target swarm attack, meant to penetrate the US consulate in a manner similar to the penetration of the General Headquarters of the Pakistan army in Rawalpindi in October last year

Al Qaeda-backed Chechen separatists behind Moscow terror
Al Qeada-backed Chechen separatists may have been behind the Moscow suicide blasts. Security expert B Raman examines the surge in terror in Central Asia.

Pak-US: An opportunistic tactical dialogue
The Pakistanis play quid pro quo diplomacy better than India does. They know how to promote their national interests while taking advantage of the needs of the US in the Afghaistan-Pakistan region, notes B Raman.

India should now focus on Tahawwur Rana
Now that David Headley has pleaded guilty, it is settled that he will not be extradited to India and that India will not be allowed to interrogate him.

It's futile to expect Saudi help on terror
It would be futile to expect that Saudi Arabia could be of assistance to India in dealing with jihadi terrorism emanating from Pakistan or Bangladesh. There has been a long history of links between jihadi terrorist elements in India and Saudi Arabia ever since the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December, 1992.

Revamping the internal security machinery
India needs to evolve a comprehensive security machinery with clearly laid down concepts, carefully defined leadership roles and a workable co-ordination drill.

Indo-Pak dialogue: Time to expand basket of issues of concern
While re-vitalising these interactions, it should be our endeavour to expand the basket of issues of concern to India, which have arisen since the format of the composite dialogue was agreed upon when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the prime minister and which are not discussed specifically now, writes B Raman.

The Taliban is down but not out
The relentless US drone attacks and the Pakistan ASrmy operations in the tribal areas has affected the Taliban's to carry out spectacular terrorist strikes in the non-tribal areas. They seem to be a weakened, but not a defeated force, writes security expert B Raman.

An open letter to the new NSA
Previously, for nearly a decade, we had no body for analysis, assessment and follow-up action. Today we have three --- the JIC of the old vintage, the NSCS of the 1998-99 creation and the National Security Advisory Board, which came into existence in 1999 as a body of non-governmental analysts and advisers on national security. From a state of practically no analysis, we have gravitated to one of a plethora of analysis.

Narayanan: A titan of the intelligence community
His human relationships were and are legendary. He was easily accessible in his office to anyone wanting to see him. He never stood on formalities in meeting people.

Gates' Delhi visit: Strategic course-correction
During Dr Gates' just-concluded stay in Delhi, one saw the transition in adjusting himself to Obama's vision of India as the pre-eminent power of South Asia, whose role will be important for the success of Obama's Af-Pak strategy, writes strategic expert B Raman.

What India can learn from Headley charge-sheet
In respect of all other charges relating to the Mumbai attack, Headley is the only accused. No one else has been cited as co-accused.

Al Qaeda's Nigerian link
From additional details of the terror attempt on December 25 by a Nigerian member of Al Qaeda to cause an explosion in a plane of the US North-West Airlines flying from Amsterdam to Detroit as it was approaching Detroit to land there, it is evident that it was not a lone wolf terrorist attempt by an angry individual to give vent to his anger against the United States.

Will Chidambaram be the internal security czar?
While a revamp our internal security architecture is needed, an all powerful home minister may not be such a good idea, writes strategic expert B Raman.

Why investigators need to focus more on Rana
Tahawwur Rana facilitated David Coleman's foreign visits and was aware of his links to the Lashkar-e-Tayiba, writes strategic expert B Raman.

Can Headley derail Indo-US intel co-operation?
Periodic misunderstandings and mutual bitterness in the relations between co-operating intelligence agencies are part of the intelligence game, writes strategic expert B Raman.

26/11: Questions that need to be posed and answered
Strategic expert B Raman on the 17 critical question that he wants answered on the Mumbai terror attacks.

The real plot behind Italian arrests
Security Expert B Raman on the 26/11-related arrests made in Italy.

Why India cannot be an Asian power like China
Power and influence are not given. They are taken. China knows how to take it, India does not, says strategic expert B Raman.

The Chicago conspiracy: What is Rana's role?
Security expert B Raman deciphers the FBI affidavit against Tahawwur Hussain Rana, the Pakistan-origin Canadian arrested with David Headley for alleged Lashkar connections, and speculates who could be their handlers in Pakistan.

Heightened alert needed on 26/11 anniversary
While security agencies have been able to prevent any major terror strikes since the Mumbai attacks last November, we should not lower our guard, writes security expert B Raman.

Will India ask the Dalai Lama to postpone Tawang visit?
India reaction to China protests over the Dalai Lama's visit to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh is one of studied ambivalence, writes B Raman

How to counter China on Arunachal Pradesh
India should avoid countering China's renewed rhetoric on Arunachal Pradesh. Instead we should be vigilant and quietly strengthen infrastructure and our defences.

Why Santhanam's Pokhran revelations are too late
To say now that the test was a fizzle and that he knew it all along has caused a lot of concern in the minds of our public. This could unwittingly encourage adventurism by India's adversaries.

Why Barack Obama won't meet the Dalai Lama
There was considerable disappointment in the Dalai Lama's entourage when it turned out that the two officials had specially flown to Dharamshala to request the Dalai Lama not to visit Washington, DC before Obama's first visit to China scheduled for November.

Chinese military unhappy with Indian media
'We have a very strong case against the Chinese on the border issue, which we should project in a non-sensational, non-jingoistic manner, but by indulging in such methods we might find our credibility weakened in the eyes of the international community,' feels
B Raman.

The danger of the India-China hysteria
The danger of such hysteria is that it could acquire an uncontrollable momentum and take the two countries towards a precipice from where they may not be able to withdraw.

What regime change in Japan means for India
If one were to go by the latest manifesto, Hatoyama's world consists essentially of Japan, the US, China, South Korea, North Korea (all mentioned by name) and "other countries". India has been relegated to the position of one of the "other countries".

China's growing role in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir
The Pakistanis, since the days of General Pervez Musharraf, have repeatedly sought Chinese assistance for the construction of a petrochemical complex at Gwadar and oil and gas pipelines and a railway line connecting Gwadar with the Xinjiang province.

Border talks: Mixed signals from China
The message, which was conveyed through the Chinese media in the days on the border talks was thus very clear: China continued to attach importance to a further improvement of its bilateral relations with India, but it will remain firm on its claims to Indian territory in the Arunachal Pradesh sector.

Obama's new nuanced counter-terrorism policy
Obama's detractors describe the new approach to counter-terrorism as the Jesuit approach. Will it succeed? Obama and Brennan want to give the new policy a try, writes security expert B Raman

Is Myanmar acquiring nuclear weapons?
Is the military junta in Myanmar trying to acquire a military nuclear capability with North Korean assistance? Or is North Korea trying to shift some of its nuclear facilities to Myanmar to protect them from a possible attack by the US?

Will the prime minister emulate Reagan?
What was the need for the indecent hurry shown by Dr Manmohan Singh at Sharm-el-Sheikh for fresh talks with Pakistan? If we had waited for a few months more till a clearer picture emerged from the proceedings of the anti-terrorism court, would the heavens have fallen on our heads, asks B Raman

No harm in talking to the ISI
There is no harm in our giving a try to the idea of an informal, clandestine one-to-one liaison relationship between the ISI and R&AW. We should not have any illusions that it would result in a sharing of actionable intelligence. Intelligence agencies share actionable intelligence only when they have common State and non-State enemies. India and Pakistan do not have common enemies. India unwitting party to demonising Balochistan
The Balochs were totally suppressed by the Punabi-dominated Pakistani Army till 2004. But their desire for independence has remained as strong as ever. They started a second war of independence in December 2005, which continues till now despite the ruthless actions taken to suppress them by the previous government of Pervez Musharraf and the present government of Asif Ali Zardari.

Indo-Pak statement lets down the martyrs of 26/11
Not a single reference to the LeT. Not a single reference to its continuing terrorist infrastructure. And, we have provided dignity to Pakistan's baseless allegations against Baloch freedom-fighters by agreeing to make a reference to Balochistan in the joint statement in the context of terrorism by indirectly bringing on record Pakistan's projection of the late Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and other Baloch leaders as terrorists, bemoans B Raman.

Urumqi riots force Hu Jintao to cancel G-8 trip
Will heads roll after Hu's return? Will the rolling heads be confined to Urumqi or will they cover Beijing too? Is the situation in Xinjiang likely to weaken Hu's leadership of the CCP? These are questions for which one has to look for answers in the days to come.

What led to China's worst ethnic flare up
The exiles allege that China's security forces indiscriminately fired on the protesters in many places in the city. In the clashes between the students and the security forces, which continued throughout the night of July 5, many were killed. Xinhua has admitted at least 140 fatalities. The exiles claim the figure is 600.

Why the Pakistan Army is struggling against the Taliban
The coherent strategy of the TTP has not been matched by an equally coherent one from Pakistan Chief of the Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. He has been struggling to counter the co-ordinated strategy of the TTP with a bits and pieces strategy depending on where the pressure from the TTP comes from.

The BBC's unlikely story on 26/11
Had there been LeT spotters around the areas targeted, who were in independent communication with the controllers in Pakistan their conversations -- whether through the Internet or otherwise -- must have also been intercepted contemporaneously or recorded and noticed subsequently. No intelligence agency -- neither Indian nor the US nor of any other country -- has spoken of any such conversation with Pakistan by elements not participating in the attacks.

Why the US and Pak Army want Baitullah Mehsud
The operations undertaken by the Pakistan Army in the Swat Valley of the Malakand Division in the North West Frontier Province since April have started coming in for some criticism because while the Pakistan Army has claimed to have killed over 1,500 foot soldiers of the Pakistani Taliban hardly any important leader has been killed or captured.

B Raman: How to counter the Maoists
It is time for the government to have a re-think on the way we have been dealing with this problem in order to have a tailor-made strategy based on improvement of political management, strengthening rural policing and rural intelligence and developing capacities for rural operations with emphasis on mobile as well as on static security.

Foreign policy priorities for the new government
Our relations with Pakistan should have the topmost priority because of their impact on our internal security situation. How to convince Pakistan that it will never be able to change the status quo in Jammu and Kashmir by using terrorism against us?

Saeed's release: Fresh oxygen for the LeT
International pressure made Pakistan act against Saeed and Nazir Ahmed as well as the five involved in the Mumbai attack. Now, Pakistan calculates that international pressure will be less because of its strong action against the Taliban. It hopes to take advantage of this for once again ensuring that the LeT and its capabalities to attack India remain.

Why the Taliban is attacking the ISI
Of these various Taliban factions, only the Neo-Taliban, which was created by the ISI in 1994 when Benazir Bhutto was the prime minister, still owes its loyalty to the ISI and the Pakistan government. The others don't.

What's common to terror attacks in India and Pak
It would be useful for the investigating agencies of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to exchange notes on their respective investigations and to pick each other's brains. One should not fight shy of agreeing to a common brain-storming on the investigations.

LTTE may be defeated, but India must be careful
There are elements in Tamil Nadu who could get emotional over the death of Prabakaran and self-motivate themselves to give vent to their anger through terrorism. There is a need for a heightened alert for at least some months.

Shock & awe on Hindutva Web sites
'There is more introspection already going on on these web sites than in New Delhi and state capitals, and there is more loud thinking than in the endless debates on our television channels.'

The Lessons of Election 2009
'What is required is not more of the Hindutva ideology, but less of it.'

Can India get back funds in tax havens?
There is a lack of required political will to deal with this problem in an effective manner by strengthening the capabilities of the intelligence and investigating agencies and letting them function without any political interference.

Can terrorirsts get hold of Pakistan's nukes?
At present, India's focus has been on making the US co-operate against the activities of the anti-India terrorist groups and their infrastructure in Pakistani territory. This should continue, but this should not be the only subject of co-operation between the two countries. It is necessary to expand it to cover likely threats to Pakistan's nuclear establishments.

On fighting terror, Cong and BJP have poor records
One would have expected a serious and professional debate on insurgency, terrorism, counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism during the election campaign -- particularly from the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The expectations have been belied.

US Af-Pak policy: Bush wine in Obama bottle
Its objective is limited to preventing another 9/11 in US territory mounted from this region. It does not pay equal attention to the concerns of India and other countries. The strategy is, therefore, unlikely to excite professionals in India.

The ploy behind the Kupwara encounter
Security expert B Raman on the encounter in Kupwara.

What the CIA chief's visit to India, Pak means
One could assess without fear of contradiction that the New Delhi visit of Panetta, who is still to find his feet as an intelligence chief, would have had a much larger political objective for Obama. Firstly, to reassure Indian leaders that Clinton's first visit to China does not mean the downgrading of the US relations with India.

IPL is not about national pride
It is important that the government goes purely by the professional assessment and advice of the security bureaucracy in deciding whether the IPL should go ahead as scheduled. Unwarranted arguments such as "national pride" etc should not be allowed to indluence the decision, says B Raman.

Are Pakistan's nukes safe from the jihadis?
The security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal from a commando-style attack by jihadi terrorists operating inside Pakistan is a question which should be worrying security experts all over the world.

Key questions on Lahore attack answered
Jihadi terrorism emanating from the sanctuaries in Pakistani territory has assumed a pan-subcontinental dimension equally threatening all the countries of the subcontinent -- Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It is time these countries constitute a common counter-terrorism brains trust to deal with this threat jointly, says B Raman.

Trouble brews for India in East
A question of major concern both to the Bnagladeshi political and military leadership as well as for India should be---- was the mutiny purely due to bread and butter issues or is there something more to it?

How India should respond to Pakistan's volte-face
One has to wait and see what further action the Pakistani authorities take in the weeks to come. This is the time for keeping up the pressure on Pakistan.

Al Qaeda threat: Questions without answers
These questions will need careful examination before one can come to a definitive conclusion on the implications of this message. But so many unanswered questions should not make us underestimate the importance of strengthened security in response to it.

Why the LTTE hates Sonia Gandhi
It is not advisable for India to be seen by large sections of the Sri Lankan Tamils as not only anti-LTTE -- rightly so -- but also as anti-Tamil.

Why Miliband tried to rationalise Mumbai attack
The shocking attempt by Miliband to play down the murders of 138 Indians and 25 foreign nationals committed by the Pakistani terrorists should not have come as a surprise to those aware of the historic links of the British intelligence with the Mirpuri migrants from Pakistani-occupied Kashmir in the UK and their important role during elections in certain constituencies

Terrorists' latest choice: hand-held weaons
'The Mumbai attack of November 2008 was the first act of mass casualty terrorism by jihadi terrorists against innocent civilians using hand-held weapons. The previous two acts of mass casualty terrorism with fatalities of more than 150 were carried out with timed IEDs -- in March 1993 and in July 2006, both in Mumbai'

Few takers for India's anti-ISI campaign
'US Congressional committees and professional counter-terrorism organisations in the West are already examining the Mumbai carnage in order to draw lessons for themselves and to prevent a Mumbai-style attack in their country. Surprisingly, such an exercise is hardly to be seen in India. All the debate till now has been on what the options are against Pakistan'

The end of Prabhakaran?
If there is to be real peace in Sri Lanka, the end of Prabhakaran has to be brought about by the Tamils themselves and not by the Sinhalese army.

Let us emulate Israel this year
While keeping our fingers crossed in J&K, we have reasons to be proud of what our intelligence agencies and the security forces have achieved in J&K after 19 years of sustained and well-calibrated counter-terrorism. They are capable of achieving similar results in the Indian hinterland in 2009 if the systemic and individual deficiencies are identified and removed instead of being covered up, says B Raman

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